Americans head to polling stations in referendum on Trump's policies

With polling places opening to nearly 100 million Americans, the world is looking to the results of the midterm congressional elections, not only as a measure of the new balance between the Republican and Democratic parties, but also as a crucial turning point for the domestic and foreign policies adopted by President Donald Trump. Early voting saw record numbers, exceeding 56 million across the 50 United States on the eve of the election, which includes choosing all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, about one-third of the Senate seats (35 seats this year), as well as 36 state governorships.

In the final hours before polls opened, following exhausting campaigns, the average from Silver Bullet indicated a Democratic lead of about 9 points in national polls, the highest margin at this stage compared to 2018, when it reached 7.2 points.

Midterm elections are often considered a referendum on the U.S. president and his policies, a notion Trump reinforced by framing the vote as a test of support for his administration, urging voters to treat it as if he were a candidate. While this strategy can energize his supporters, it also gives those dissatisfied with his administration a direct opportunity to express their opposition.

President’s Numbers

President Trump enters this referendum with low approval ratings: 37.3 percent in favor and 59.9 percent against, according to Silver Bullet; 36 percent versus 59 percent in a New York Times/Siena College poll; and 40 percent versus 60 percent in an NBC News poll, marking the highest disapproval rating for him in that network’s surveys. Meanwhile, his approval stood at 32 percent in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, an increase of one point from his lowest recorded level.

Before Americans cast their ballots, an NBC News poll showed that 52 percent of registered voters preferred Democratic control of Congress, compared to 45 percent for Republicans. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on October 26, Democrats led among registered voters by 47 percent to 36 percent, and among likely voters by 53 percent to 44 percent. A national poll conducted by the New York Times and Siena College gave Democrats a 10-point lead in House races and a 5-point lead in states holding Senate elections.

Despite variations, the averages confirm the same trend: the Average One Point Politics average showed Democrats at 53.4 percent versus Republicans at 41.4 percent, a 12-point gap, while the Poll Check average for Monday showed 51 percent versus 42.7 percent, an 8.3-point difference.

Senate Battle

If Republicans currently control the Senate with a majority of 53 seats to 47, Democrats need to gain a net of four seats, as Vice President JD Vance would break any tie.

The most significant developments came from the latest round of New York Times/Siena College polls, which showed Democratic candidates leading in seven states that could determine the fate of the Senate. In Michigan, Abd al-Rahman al-Sayed led Mike Rogers with 53 percent to 42 percent. In Texas, state representative James Talarico led Attorney General Ken Paxton with 50 percent to 43 percent. In Maine, Troy Jackson led Senator Susan Collins with 51 percent to 45 percent. In Kansas, Adam Hamilton led Senator Roger Marshall with 49 percent to 44 percent. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown led John Husted by the same margin. In Alaska, Mary Peltola led Senator Dan Sullivan with 48 percent to 46 percent. Iowa was the closest race, with Josh Tarr leading Ashley Hinson with 48 percent to 47 percent.

In a separate poll published on October 28, Democrat Peggy Flanagan led Michelle Tefoya in Minnesota with 54 percent to 40 percent, while Republican Ashley Moody led Angie Nixon in Florida with 50 percent to 44 percent. In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews tied Republican Darlene Graham, who was appointed to the Senate to succeed her late brother Lindsey Graham, at 48 percent.

The Pollster model, updated on November 2, gave Democrats a 68 percent chance of controlling the Senate, compared to 29 percent for Republicans and 3 percent for no party gaining control. However, Republicans could benefit if polls underestimate their support.

The House of Representatives appears closer to a Democratic victory. The Wall Street Journal predicted they would win 224 seats, an increase of six seats over the 218 needed for a majority. The Cook Political Report classified 222 seats as leaning Democratic, compared to 195 for Republicans, with 18 swing districts remaining, 14 of which are held by Republicans.

The cost of living remains the Trump administration’s weakest point in this election. In the New York Times/Siena poll, only 29 percent approved of Trump’s handling of living costs, while 69 percent disapproved; 24 percent approved of his handling of gas prices, while 73 percent disapproved. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 73 percent believed the economy was on the wrong track, with 37 percent preferring the Democratic approach to the economy compared to 33 percent for Republicans.

Voters expressed dissatisfaction with both parties, but Democrats were viewed as more capable of addressing issues such as the economy, healthcare, corruption, and foreign wars, while Republicans retained their advantage on immigration.

President Trump currently enjoys a wide margin in foreign policy. He will not be significantly affected by the election results until the new Congress convenes in early January. However, Congress controls funding, reviews arms deals, and can force votes on war powers. A Democratic majority in the House could pressure the administration regarding the costs of the Iran war and tariffs. If Republicans maintain their majority, they would give President Trump greater freedom in his final two years.