Midterm elections put Trump's influence to a crucial test

Days before the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3, President Donald Trump faces a political test that extends beyond the Republicans’ ability to retain their majority in Congress, encompassing the extent of his influence within his party and his capacity to convert his popularity into electoral votes that would ensure the continued implementation of his legislative agenda. Polls indicate Democrats are leading nationally, amid fierce competition in several states for seats in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. As an indicator of the sensitivity of the landscape, Republican candidates have begun to show a degree of independence from Trump, whose endorsement had previously been a crucial factor in securing victories during the primary elections.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted between October 22 and 26 showed that 47 percent of voters support the Democrats, compared to 36 percent for the Republicans, a gap of 11 points. When accounting for independent voters’ leanings, the figures rose to 50 percent for the Democrats and 41 percent for the Republicans. Although these numbers do not determine the outcome of the seats, they reflect the challenges facing the Republican Party ahead of the vote.

A Reuters report revealed that about two-thirds of Republican candidates in 62 competitive races for the Senate and House sought to demonstrate their independence from Trump on specific issues or avoid association with certain of his policies. Forty-one candidates took positions highlighting their differences with him, while disagreements emerged in 23 races, and 12 candidates removed references to the president from their campaign websites.

These moves reflect an attempt to balance appealing to the pro-Trump Republican base while winning over independent and moderate voters, particularly amid concerns related to the economy and rising living costs. The war with Iran has emerged as one of the issues driving some Republicans to distance themselves from the White House’s stance, given its potential impact on fuel prices and household expenses. In Iowa, Republican candidate Ashley Hinson called for ending the war, while Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan demanded its swift conclusion. Additionally, Republican Representative Tom Barrett voted against carrying out military operations in Iran without prior congressional approval, a position reflecting disagreements over the limits of presidential authority and the costs of military intervention.

The immigration issue represents another test for the party, as strict border control and enforcement of immigration laws have been a cornerstone of Trump’s rhetoric. The execution of deportation operations has sparked debate over law enforcement methods, prompting Republican candidates to distinguish between supporting border security and opposing measures they view as excessive. A Fox News poll showed that 53 percent of respondents believe the administration’s practices on immigration have crossed acceptable limits. In Florida, Republican Representative Maria Elvira Salazar criticized widespread deportation operations, while Representative Monica De La Cruz called for focusing on deporting immigrants involved in crimes. In New York, Representative Mike Lawler advocated for reforms allowing some undocumented immigrants to regularize their legal status, while Representative Brian Fitzpatrick collaborated with Democrats on legislative efforts to enhance oversight of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency.

These positions reveal candidates’ efforts to balance the party’s traditional rhetoric on border security with the concerns of independent voters and Latino communities. In response to these challenges, Trump has intensified his rallies to support Republican candidates, visiting Texas more than once in recent weeks.

The state is witnessing a competitive Senate race between Republican Ken Buck and Democrat James Talari, with heightened attention on the Democrats’ prospects in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator in decades. Eyes are also turning to Michigan, where Democrat Abdul Rahman Siddiqui and Republican Mike Rogers are competing, and to Ohio, where Republicans are seeking to defend their Senate seat against Democrat Sherrod Brown. Meanwhile, former President Barack Obama has returned to the campaign trail to support Democrats, alongside former Vice President Kamala Harris, aiming to energize the party base and boost voter turnout. This effort is accompanied by intensive advertising spending targeting undecided voters ahead of Election Day.