Ukraine War: Between Negotiation and Escalation... The Search for a Settlement
More than four years after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the end of the conflict remains distant, with developments unfolding along two parallel tracks: US diplomatic efforts to bring Moscow and Kyiv back to the negotiating table, and a continuous military escalation on the ground and in depth. Recent days have seen contradictory indicators; while Kyiv expressed readiness for a new round of trilateral talks with Russia and the United States, Moscow intensified its missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. In the latest wave of attacks on October 7, at least 25 people were killed and around 100 others injured, marking one of the deadliest strikes in recent months.
The United States is seeking to relaunch a negotiation track involving Moscow and Kyiv, amid reports that a new round of talks could be held in October. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced his country’s willingness to participate in trilateral talks mediated by the US, signaling that the diplomatic track remains open despite ongoing fighting.
However, resuming dialogue does not necessarily mean that a final agreement is near. The most complex issues, particularly the territories controlled by Russia, security guarantees for Ukraine, and post-ceasefire arrangements, remain key points of disagreement. The US Council on Foreign Relations notes that Washington-led talks have not yet produced a ceasefire, with both sides still divided over territorial concessions and security guarantees.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to use its military power to pressure Ukraine, while simultaneously testing Kyiv’s and its allies’ capacity to sustain the war. The recent attacks on cities and critical facilities come as Ukraine faces increasing pressure on its air defense systems, particularly US-made Patriot missiles. Moscow’s calculations also appear linked to its ability to sustain a war of attrition, as it seeks to test the extent to which European countries are willing to maintain their level of support for Ukraine amid the economic and political pressures facing the continent. Western analyses suggest that the Kremlin is betting on the continuation of the war and pressure on Europe’s domestic front, while Moscow insists that its military operations are tied to its stated security and political objectives.
Ukraine, for its part, is seeking to combine the diplomatic track with maintaining its military capabilities. Its acceptance of a return to talks does not come in isolation from its demands for security guarantees and continued military support, particularly in the fields of air defense, missiles, and drones.
Recent developments reveal that Kyiv’s ability to continue the war remains heavily dependent on the steady flow of Western arms and funding. On October 7, Ukraine announced its urgent need for additional Patriot missiles to counter Russian ballistic missiles, while simultaneously receiving €1.2 billion from the European Union to support its defense needs.
With the clarity of long-term US commitment to direct aid diminishing, Europe is assuming an increasingly significant role in financing and arming Ukraine.
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy notes that Europe significantly increased its aid allocations to Ukraine in May and June 2026, driven particularly by a European loan of 90 billion euros designated to support Kyiv’s financial and defense needs in 2026 and 2027. The European Commission also announced in September the disbursement of 3.3 billion euros to purchase defense equipment for Ukraine, including drones and missiles, bringing the Commission’s total spending in 2026 to approximately 15 billion euros across various support channels. The European loan program allocates 60 billion euros for defense and 30 billion euros for the budget during 2026 and 2027.
