Gold prices end last week's trading at $4,430 per ounce

Gold prices ended last week’s trading session lower, marking their second consecutive weekly loss, and closed at $4,430 per ounce. The decline was driven by stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data, which bolstered expectations for a tighter U.S. monetary policy.

In a report issued on Sunday, Kuwait Mint Company stated that U.S. non-farm payroll figures were the primary factor influencing gold’s movement last week. The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, significantly surpassing market expectations of around 56,000. Additionally, July’s data was revised upward to reflect an increase of 21,000 jobs.

The report noted that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.1%, though this decrease was less than market forecasts. The strength of the U.S. labor market reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve has greater scope to maintain or raise interest rates if inflationary pressures persist, as a robust labor market reduces the risk of significant economic damage from tighter monetary policy.

Consequently, market bets on a rate hike at the September meeting rose to between 58% and 61%, according to market pricing indicators, up from lower levels prior to the jobs report. U.S. Treasury yields also rose following the jobs data, with the 10-year yield touching 4.81% before retreating to around 4.77%.

Gold faced strong pressure last week after failing to sustain levels above $4,500 per ounce. However, the sharp price decline found some support as yields fell from their intraday highs. Despite current pressures, the report highlighted that medium- and long-term supportive factors for gold remain in place, including geopolitical risks, concerns over U.S. debt and fiscal deficit levels, and continued investment demand for gold as a key safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty.

The Kuwait Mint report emphasized that developments in the Middle East, Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz will remain under close investor scrutiny, particularly amid ongoing concerns about oil tanker movements and energy supplies. It noted that sustained high oil prices could exacerbate inflationary pressures, potentially impacting U.S. monetary policy expectations, while escalating geopolitical risks may boost demand for gold as a safe haven.

From a technical perspective, gold closed last week near $4,430 per ounce, keeping the $4,400 level as the key pivot point for the current phase. The report suggested that if gold can hold this level and reclaim $4,450, attention may shift toward $4,500, followed by the $4,520–$4,534 zone, which represents significant technical resistance. Conversely, if the $4,400 level breaks and holds below, the risk of further correction toward $4,354 and then $4,322 increases. The $4,282 level would serve as a major technical support in the event of a deeper market downturn.

On the local front, the Kuwait Mint report stated that gold prices in the Kuwaiti market continue to be directly influenced by global ounce movements, alongside fluctuations in the U.S. dollar and changing expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy.

It noted that the price of 24-karat gold reached approximately 44 Kuwaiti dinars (about $143), while 22-karat gold stood at around 40.370 dinars (approximately $131). The price of 21-karat gold was about 38.530 dinars (roughly $125), and the price of a kilogram of silver reached approximately 715 dinars (around $2,328).

The report predicted that global gold movements during the current week would directly impact local prices, particularly as markets await U.S. inflation data, which could lead to shifts in interest rate expectations, the dollar, and bond yields.