Ron Ben-Yishay: Hamas will remain the dominant and influential force in Gaza, and the Israeli army will be constrained

Israeli writer and military analyst Ron Ben-Yishai argued that the “road map” published by the “Peace Council for Gaza” leaves Hamas, the de facto authority in the Gaza Strip, in control, even if the agreement is implemented. Ben-Yishai considered that Israel would be the party making concessions, while Hamas would achieve political and security gains.

In an article published in Yedioth Ahronoth, Ben-Yishai stated that the document is not a binding agreement, but rather an “ambiguous declaration of intent,” lacking basic definitions regarding the mechanism for disarming Hamas, including what constitutes “heavy weapons” to be handed over by the movement, whether this includes RPGs and explosives, as well as the fate of these weapons, their storage mechanisms, and the body responsible for overseeing them.

He added that the most dangerous aspect of the document, in his view, is that it entrenches a model similar to the status of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hamas would remain the real power managing the Strip behind the scenes by integrating its elements into the new police force and retaining its employees within governance institutions, without bearing responsibility for managing public affairs or providing services.

He pointed out the continued disagreement between Israel and Hamas regarding the timing of disarmament in exchange for the withdrawal of the Israeli army. Israel insists on linking the withdrawal to the handover of Hamas’s weapons, while Hamas maintains that the Israeli withdrawal must precede the transfer of weapons to a Palestinian technocratic committee. Ben-Yishai considered that this issue could be resolved through the verification committee and international force stipulated in the document.

The writer believed that the core problem for Israel is not in the details of the arrangements, but in the fact that the plan ensures Hamas remains the influential force in Gaza. It provides protection for its surviving members and leaders, guarantees their continued presence within the Strip, secures jobs or financial compensation for them, and opens the door for their future integration into governance institutions.

He added that the document also grants the movement a “political and moral achievement” by stipulating the opening of a “reliable path toward self-determination and the establishment of a Palestinian state.” In his view, this gives Hamas the opportunity to strengthen its influence in the Palestinian street, in exchange for relinquishing part of its weapons, most of which he claims the Israeli army had already destroyed during the war, including tunnels, heavy weapons, and production means. He noted that the Israeli army had eliminated at least 70% of these capabilities.

He highlighted that loopholes in the disarmament mechanism would allow Hamas, in his assessment, to gradually rebuild its capabilities. Meanwhile, its members who join the police or obtain official licenses would retain their personal weapons, while Palestinian groups and tribes that collaborated with Israel during the war would be disarmed and prohibited from working in the new Authority institutions.

Ben-Yishai concluded that Israel does not achieve genuine security gains from the plan. It commits to a phased full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and halting military operations, including assassination operations, while the Israeli army’s hand would be “tied” in dealing with any violations committed by Hamas or Islamic Jihad, even if the technocratic government or international force fails to address them.

He ended by stating that the document does not grant Israel the right to veto the appointment of senior officials in the new Strip administration, nor does it give the Israeli army the right to conduct “hot pursuit” operations if Gaza border towns come under attack. He considered that the plan imposes a reality on Israel, in terms of restrictions on its military freedom of action, similar to what it currently faces in Lebanon.