Kuwait and the New World Order 2026-2035

How can Kuwait transition from an oil-dependent economy to a nation producing wealth, technology, and global services?

This question requires an explanation that begins with assessing the state’s available potential as it seeks to secure its economic standing for decades to come, rather than merely boosting revenues in the coming years.

Kuwait does not need to abandon oil; rather, it must leverage oil, capital, and its geographic location to build new sources of income, production, and economic influence. This is especially critical given that four major powers will significantly influence the world in the near future, from today until at least 2040. Specifically, China, the United States, India, and Europe are competing in manufacturing, technology, and supply chains.

In recent years, we have witnessed a radical shift in the nature of jobs, even among major corporations, as well as a change in the perception of economic cooperation following the imposition of higher tariffs than previously common. This shift has fundamentally altered global investment patterns, affecting the general population in a highly sensitive manner.

Consequently, the question in Kuwait has become: How can the state become an indispensable economic partner, regardless of shifts in global power balances?

This begins by looking not only at oil reserves but also at how they are used to finance the transition and develop energy industries. Sovereign assets should be invested to generate returns, and partnerships should be established with countries based on leveraging geographic location. The goal is to ensure that regional trade, logistics, and services primarily pass through Kuwait, which in turn attracts substantial investments capable of withstanding regional changes and expanding beyond the small Kuwaiti market into neighboring Gulf markets.

However, there is a critical point: possessing money and resources is not enough. There must be institutions capable of executing projects quickly, effective organization, human capital, and competitive companies. Therefore, Kuwait has a significant opportunity. It will not start from scratch but must transform its current assets into a new production system.

According to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) review published in February 2026, expected real GDP growth for 2026 is 3.8 percent, with non-oil growth expected at 3.0 percent. Oil revenues account for 90.5 percent of budget revenues, while the expected deficit for the fiscal year 2026/27 is 9.4 percent of GDP. These figures are IMF projections, not final actual results.

Assuming these expectations were accurate, Kuwait possesses large foreign financial reserves and a relatively stable banking system. However, it faces a structural challenge: the state is the primary financier, operator, and employer, while the private sector has not yet become an independent and major driver of exports and production.

We must ask: Does this generate continuous commercial revenue? Does it export services or goods? Does it reduce the cost of the economy? Does it increase worker productivity?

If these outcomes are not achieved, we may end up with costly assets that require additional maintenance spending without sufficient economic return. Therefore, the criterion for national success must shift from the value of announced projects to the economic value they generate after being operationalized.

From this perspective, I propose building a strategy around systems, rather than attempting to compete with the world in every industry. The focus should be on applications in industrial, financial, digital, and artificial intelligence services, as well as oil and gas services. Emphasis should be placed on industrial applications, financial services, logistics, trade, professional services, debt market development, and asset management, aiming to make Kuwait a hub for establishing, managing, and expanding companies.

By 2035, the true measure of Kuwait’s success will not be solely the size of its financial wealth, but its ability to generate new wealth each year without overreliance on oil sales.