World Bank: Energy Prices May Rise 32% in 2026 Due to Middle East Conflict
The World Bank predicts a 32% rise in global energy prices this year, driven by the fallout from the Middle East conflict and declining global oil reserves.
Translated by Qiyas from السياسة — Original source
The World Bank on Wednesday forecast a 32 percent rise in global energy prices this year, reaching their highest level in four years, driven by the fallout from the conflict in the Middle East and declining global oil inventories.
In its latest report on commodity market prospects, the Bank stated that the average price of Brent crude is projected to rise to $91 per barrel in 2026, compared to around $69 in 2025, before falling to $79 in 2027, under the baseline scenario.
The report noted that falling global oil inventories are increasing market vulnerability to additional supply shocks, warning that energy prices could rise further if the Middle East conflict escalates and damage to Russia’s oil infrastructure persists.
The Bank forecast a 23 percent increase in overall commodity prices in 2026, followed by a 7 percent decline in 2027.
It also projected a 10 percent rise in food prices this year, with an additional 7 percent increase next year, due to disruptions in grain shipments, the impact of the El Niño phenomenon, and rising agricultural production costs, particularly for fuel and fertilizers.
The Bank warned that worsening geopolitical and climate risks could push energy and food prices to higher levels, threatening global food security and increasing living cost pressures on the most vulnerable populations, with the potential to push more people into extreme poverty.
The report indicated that the average price of Brent crude could reach $105 per barrel in 2027, while food commodity prices might exceed their 2022 levels.
The World Bank reaffirmed its commitment to continuing financing and support through existing instruments, alongside strengthening its capacity to mobilize private capital to help countries cope with the fallout from global shocks and mitigate their economic impacts.
For his part, Ayhan Kose, Vice President for Economic Growth and Director of the Development Prospects Group at the World Bank, said that rising energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a wide range of commodities, threatening to exacerbate inflation, food insecurity, and slow economic growth.
Kose emphasized the need to prioritize protecting the poorest populations and supporting low-income countries burdened by heavy debt.
