Iran negotiates with Washington and threatens neighbors

Iran appears, at this current stage, to be moving in two contradictory directions: it is opening negotiation channels with the United States through intermediaries, while simultaneously escalating its warning messages to neighboring countries, particularly regarding any attempt to bypass the Strait of Hormuz or use Gulf land and facilities to support American pressure.

However, in my view, this behavior does not reflect a contradiction so much as it reveals a negotiation strategy that combines diplomacy and deterrence.

Tehran recognizes that the continuation of war and economic pressures is imposing increasing costs on it, and therefore keeps the door open for negotiations. Indirect communications with Washington have continued through intermediaries, particularly Qatar and Oman, while Iran has proposed conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including halting military operations, lifting the blockade, releasing frozen assets, and allowing it to resume its oil exports.

But Iran does not want to go to the negotiating table after relinquishing its leverage. Here, the Strait of Hormuz emerges as the most important card; Tehran has announced that reopening it is contingent on the implementation of its conditions, while its warnings have intensified in recent days regarding the use of alternative routes for oil exports, coinciding with rising navigation risks and attacks on ships in the region.

From this, we can understand Iran’s messages to Gulf states. The aim is not necessarily to open a direct confrontation with them, but rather to deter them from participating in a strategy aimed at circumventing Iran’s pressure tools. The more the countries in the region succeed in developing alternative energy and trade routes, the less significant the Strait of Hormuz becomes as a bargaining chip in Tehran’s hands.

However, this strategy also carries risks; excessive threats to neighboring countries may push them toward greater security coordination with the United States, rather than maintaining distance from the conflict.

In my view, Iran is currently attempting to strike a delicate balance: negotiating with Washington to reduce the cost of war, while pressuring its neighbors to preserve its bargaining chips.

Therefore, the most important question is not whether Iran wants war or negotiation, but to what extent it can combine the two without allowing regional pressure to evolve into a new trajectory that expands the circle of confrontation.

Thus, the future of the Strait of Hormuz may be the most significant indicator of the direction of Iranian policy: will it become a gateway for an American-Iranian settlement, or a new regional flashpoint?