Iran No Longer a Trusted Partner

When we look at the image that brought together envoys from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan with Iranian officials in Tehran, the significance of this high-level delegation becomes apparent, as does the presence of President Masoud Pezeshkian and senior figures within the Iranian regime.

Those familiar with the nature of these three countries understand that this meeting may represent Iran’s final warning, which must be heeded, even if it entails painful consequences. Otherwise, the region is on the verge of major developments that could threaten the very existence of the Iranian state, not merely its current regime.

In this context, one cannot approach the situation with the mindset of the Persian negotiator who historically extorted his opponents through protracted negotiations lasting years, as was the case with the Russians in the past, as well as with the Ottoman Empire. The core dynamics today differ significantly from those of centuries ago. A state in a position of weakness cannot withstand the waves of pressure bearing down on it for long. Hiding behind regional proxies will no longer suffice, as Iran has become far too weak, whether in Lebanon, Iraq, or even Yemen.

Observers of recent developments recognize that these proxies have now become a burden on both Tehran and the Iranian people. For the average Iranian citizen, securing basic necessities like bread is far more important than supporting terrorist gangs to form a sectarian axis aimed at dominating the region. Consequently, the crackdown on protesters last January, which resulted in the deaths of approximately 32,000 people, marked a turning point in the regime’s history. The regime now fears popular wrath more than ever, echoing the conditions on the eve of the Shah’s fall—a lesson that must be learned.

Therefore, stalling and delaying tactics in futile negotiations are no longer effective. The region has changed significantly, particularly following the weakness displayed by Iran and its regional proxies after the ongoing conflict since 2023. Reality contradicts the narratives spread by electronic bots and AI-driven disinformation. States do not place weight on such deception; rather, they deal with facts and work to de-escalate tensions, as the region has no need for further terrorism.

Thus, the “art of attrition” practiced by the Persians in their negotiations with Russia in the 19th century—eventually exhausting the Russian negotiator into agreeing to the Treaty of Gulistan—or their centuries-long engagements with the Ottomans, will yield no results today. This is due to the profound transformations that have occurred not only in the region but globally.

Based on this, we can draw conclusions from the events in Tehran the day before yesterday. Analyzing the subtext of Iranian statements, followed by those of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, reveals many implications worth considering. Most importantly, a return to the status quo that prevailed in the region from 1979 until the eve of the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran is now impossible.

Secondly, the member states of the “Mecca Alliance” will not compromise their national security, even if the terrorist groups supported by Tehran resume instigating problems in the region. Thirdly, and most crucially, these three countries will not allow Iran to wreak havoc in the region without accountability.

Consequently, despite a major defeat, the flags of victory will be raised in Tehran, but like a dying man, Iran’s fate is sealed; its lies cannot erase what has been written. In this light, we can consider the statement made by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian regarding “Tehran’s readiness to support initiatives aimed at resolving differences and enhancing security and stability.” However, all of this remains contingent on concrete actions on the ground, not on relying on the “art of attrition,” as Iran is no longer a trusted actor.