Risks of US withdrawal from Iraq on neighboring countries
Useful Summary
To keep it brief and simple: the US military intervention in Iraq in 2003 toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime, plunging the country into chaos. This allowed the terrorist group ISIS to emerge and spread. US forces and their allies confronted ISIS, significantly curbing its influence, but at a heavy cost: they inadvertently granted Iran considerable influence in Iraq.
Today, more than 23 years after the fall of Saddam’s regime and the fight against ISIS, the Iraqi government has demanded that US forces withdraw by September 30, 2026. It has also called on Iraqi militias and those allied with Iran to disarm by June 2027.
Special Reports
Education
Follow Decisions
The US withdrawal is one of the demands of Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Allaq and Iran-backed militias in the country, with the aim of opening a new chapter between Iraq and Washington based on investments and economic partnership, amid efforts to centralize weapons under state control.
What does this mean? That Americans must leave Iraq, and that Baghdad will fix internal conditions, assuming that militias will surrender their weapons?
And if these conditions are not met, and internal security deteriorates, with drones and missiles launched against neighboring countries?
The withdrawal serves Iran’s interests, enabling it to maintain or even expand its influence in Iraq. Iran-linked Iraqi militias could continue attacking US facilities or Gulf energy infrastructure.
Our government and Gulf states must exercise caution. The internal situation in Iraq may deteriorate. I know there is a channel for dialogue between Kuwait and Iraq, but who will restrain and deter the armed factions? Even the Kurdistan Region fears a loss of security and exposure to missile attacks from these militias.
The departure of US forces may encourage Iran to mobilize its allied military factions to use weapons to threaten neighboring countries. Additionally, ISIS may be emboldened to reactivate its operatives.
