Military Analysis: How Will the Regime in Iran Change?
Useful Summary
Kenneth Pollack, a military analyst at the US Central Intelligence Agency, made remarks in March last year, which we published at the time, stating: “Since World War II, countries have attempted to overthrow foreign governments using air power, and it has proven impossible to topple a regime without deploying ground forces.
US and Israeli military operations against Iran are likely to yield some scenarios:
The first, and most probable, is that the regime will remain, but it will be more reckless and aggressive toward America and Israel than before, and more committed to developing nuclear weapons. This regime will be far worse than the current one.
If the regime falls, Iran is likely to slide into civil war and widespread chaos. There are dozens of examples showing that the collapse of any government leaves a security vacuum. If there is no large ground force capable of immediate intervention to enforce law and order, a terrifying civil war will quickly erupt.
The third most likely scenario in the event of the regime’s collapse is the establishment of a military dictatorship, not by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, but by the Iranian Armed Forces. This is what happened in Iran after World War I, when the country descended into civil war until Reza Shah Pahlavi, commander of the Cossack Brigade supported by Russia in the old Iranian army, crushed all his rivals, forced various ethnic groups to submit, and declared himself Shah.
This military dictator may be harsh and unpopular, but he would be far better than a hardline regime, and this is also an outcome that many Arab countries might prefer.
There is a chance of regime change in Iran through the elimination of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Eliminating this party, the regime’s most important ally, would be seen as evidence of the imminent end of the Islamic Republic, thereby weakening the morale of its forces. If Lebanese people topple Hezbollah, Iranians may be encouraged to take similar action to overthrow the regime in their country.
Events in the Gulf region are unfolding very rapidly, so we will address them sequentially, God willing. The summary up to today is that Iran is launching hostile attacks with drones and missiles against peaceful Gulf states, and has mobilized its proxies to carry out sabotage operations. However, its agents are falling one by one in the Gulf, and it has harmed the global economy, while believing itself to be victorious.
Last Column
We have detailed the internal crisis in Yemen. If we consider Yemen’s map as a rectangle, the western quarter is controlled by the Houthi rebels, Iran’s proxies, who have moved to seize the remaining western Yemeni cities. But the oppressive minority cannot prevail; the oppressor will never triumph.
