Defeat of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is certain
When we say that the danger posed by the current Iranian regime is far greater than some anticipate, it is not due to a transient stance, but because this regime rests on a triad: first, repressive rule that allows no room for any internal voices opposing it; second, the promotion of sectarianism as a solution for the world; and third, the creation of forces organically linked to it, which it directs at will to achieve its objectives. Any disruption to one of these pillars means bringing the temple down on everyone’s heads. Thus, following its successful overthrow of the Shah, the regime’s efforts were directed toward building a system of proxies for this very purpose.
Conversely, its danger began to unfold when it launched the new phase of its nuclear and missile programs. Considering the twin nature of these two programs, as is standard practice in countries possessing nuclear weapons, we find that it seeks to impose its ideological vision through subjugation, first of its geographic neighborhood, and second, of the international community. This is undoubtedly a grave miscalculation, as the world has learned its lessons well from a series of nuclear events, from the bombing of Hiroshima to Chernobyl.
For this reason, when U.S. President Donald Trump stated at the recent Republican Party conference that “the United States will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon,” and has insisted on this position since withdrawing from the previous nuclear deal in 2018, he is well aware, as are many in the world, that a regime based on a political ideology of terrorism is unacceptable. This is akin to the Nazi regime, which cost the world more than 70 million lives and caused widespread destruction across many nations in its attempt to impose Hitler’s distorted vision, which was contrary to human truth.
Consequently, there are several articles in the Iranian Constitution that provide a detailed vision of the meaning of “exporting the revolution” as understood by Khomeini and the ruling clique at that time. Over the past decades, these articles have not been amended because they form the foundation upon which the regime was built. This means the regime has maintained its stance for 47 years, confirming that what is happening today is nothing more than political deception to buy more time.
In this regard, we return to the period before the success of the revolution, i.e., before 1979. At that time, popular demands centered on achieving social justice, ensuring state revenue benefited the people, maximizing national industries, and attaining self-sufficiency. Ayatollah Khomeini rode this wave, but his goals were far broader. This is why ideological slogans dominate the landscape of the current conflict.
Had the “social justice” promised by Khomeini to the people been realized, Iran would have become the greatest state in the region, economically, educationally, and socially. Instead, it has spent tens of billions to establish a sectarian military system to achieve goals that are impossible given the geographic, ethnic, religious, and economic realities.
Therefore, today Iran—the state, not just the regime—stands at a very sensitive crossroads. This was expressed frankly by the current President, Masoud Pezeshkian, on several occasions in recent weeks. He stated that maintaining the status quo for the past six months means undermining society. He also hinted at the prospect of chaos, saying the day before yesterday: “Iran has been subjected to severe and wide-ranging sanctions in recent years, and these pressures have reached a critical and dangerous stage in recent months.”
On this basis, when it activated its Houthi arm in Yemen, it was attempting to kill two birds with one stone: first, destabilizing the Gulf situation by targeting Saudi Arabia, and second, diverting attention from its disaster in Lebanon, as well as from internal issues in Iran. But as usual, the defeat of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will be devastating.
