Challenges of Gulf Strategic Geopolitical Security in the Future
The Strait of Hormuz represents the vital artery of the global energy economy, through which approximately 21 million barrels of oil pass daily.
This analytical article, employing rigorous research standards, examines the complex interactions governing this strategic waterway amid current tensions, offering practical recommendations for policymakers.
The conflicts surrounding the strait are rooted in a legal debate. While countries in the international community emphasize the right of "transit passage" under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Iran, in certain aspects of its conduct, cites its incomplete ratification of the convention. This creates a legal gray zone exploited to impose political facts.
Politics
Economics
History
The "drone war" and artificial intelligence have fundamentally transformed the rules of engagement. Traditional capabilities are no longer decisive; instead, the strategy of "reasonable denial" has become dominant. Destructive operations are now conducted using technologies with hard-to-trace origins, placing major powers in a diplomatic and military dilemma.
Recommendations for Policymakers
First: For the Gulf Arab states, strategic diversification of logistical capabilities:
- Accelerate the completion and development of oil and gas pipeline networks that bypass the strait (ports on the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea).
- Technological security cooperation: Establish a regional early-warning system based on artificial intelligence to monitor asymmetric threats.
- Preventive diplomacy: Adopt a "soft power" approach to build international alliances that enshrine the principle of "waterway neutrality" as a non-negotiable global interest.
Second: For the international community
- Commitment to international law: Activate the role of the International Court of Justice and maritime organizations to solidify a unified legal interpretation of "transit passage" in international straits.
- Diversification of energy sources: Invest seriously in green hydrogen and renewable energy technologies to reduce strategic dependence on high-risk waterways.
- Regional stability as a priority: Major powers must adopt a strategy of "comprehensive de-escalation" rather than temporary military solutions to ensure the stability of global supply chains.
Understanding the Hormuz crisis requires a holistic perspective that goes beyond military analysis to encompass international law, technological evolution, and shifts in the global economy.
Diversifying logistical routes and adhering to international law remain the sole guarantee of global energy security.
Regarding cross-strait oil integration, it is essential to leverage the successful Saudi experience of shifting a significant portion of its logistical burden to the Red Sea via the East-West Pipeline. The Gulf system should also explore projects to link massive reciprocal oil pipelines extending to the Omani coast. This would ensure the overland flow of Kuwaiti and Gulf oil to export terminals located outside the direct scope of Iranian threats.
Logistical integration with Oman serves as a safety valve for food and energy security. Oman, with its strategic location on the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, represents the vital geopolitical and security depth crucial for the Gulf states, particularly Kuwait. The current trend goes beyond traditional trade exchange to establish a "joint logistical security zone."
Furthermore, the establishment of joint strategic warehouses and silos to store essential goods and food is necessary to secure the vital needs of the system’s countries (where Gulf states import between 80% and 90% of their food).
This mechanism ensures the overland flow of supplies via the unified Gulf railway network to Kuwait, eliminating the need for cargo ships to pass through the disrupted strait.
Likewise, establishing a unified logistical corridor by linking the Port of Mishref in the far north with Omani ports in the far south via a dedicated freight rail network would transform the Arabian Peninsula from a water-constrained region into a “global land bridge” connecting Asian trade routes with European markets, and securing reverse supply lines during crises and wars.
Reengineering national security today, shifting focus toward Omani ports, and building overland corridors that bypass strategic straits are no longer developmental luxuries or deferrable political choices; rather, they represent an inevitable practical application of the established jurisprudential principle: “That which is necessary to fulfill an obligation becomes obligatory in itself.” Protecting sovereignty, ensuring the state’s survival, and securing food and energy supplies for peoples are all religious and political duties that demand an immediate break from the constraints of traditional geography, and a strategic pivot toward the open waters of the Arabian Sea.
May God protect Kuwait and its people from all harm and calamity.
$ A Kuwaiti writer
