Mail-in voting begins in the US midterm elections

Mail-in voting has begun in the U.S. midterm elections, with the process launching on Friday in North Carolina, which became the first state to initiate this type of voting in a contest that could redraw the balance of power within Congress.

The elections are scheduled for November 3 and include all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, as well as one-third of the seats in the Senate, determining the political space available for President Donald Trump to implement his agenda during the final two years of his term.

Projections favor the Democrats in the House race, with Cornell University estimating their chances of winning a majority at around 80%, expecting them to secure 226 seats compared to 209 for the Republicans. Other estimates also lean in their favor.

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In the Senate, Republicans hold a majority of 53 seats to 47 for the Democrats, meaning the latter need four additional seats to seize control.

However, Decision Desk HQ has predicted a possible 50-50 tie, which could give Vice President JD Vance the deciding vote if needed.

Peter K. Enns, a professor of government and politics at Cornell University, stated that these projections “are not inevitable,” noting a degree of uncertainty, but clarified that if Republicans retain the House, given the historical accuracy of the university’s model, it would imply that conditions have exceptionally favored them.

Republicans view the midterm elections as a test of Trump’s presidency, urging supporters who voted for him in the 2024 elections to return to the polls.

The contest comes amid challenges facing the president’s party, including the typical decline experienced by the ruling party in midterm elections, alongside declining approval ratings for Trump and voter concerns over prices and the war with Iran.

Mail-in voting has begun amid controversy over the handling of ballot procedures, after Trump requested the Supreme Court to allow the U.S. Postal Service to impose new verification procedures on those wishing to vote by mail.

However, a federal judge suspended this request, amid warnings that the hastily prepared new requirements could disrupt the delivery of ballots.

Officials in North Carolina confirmed that mail-in voting will proceed according to the planned schedule, while other states prepare to begin distributing ballots in September, with all states expected to send ballots to military personnel and overseas voters by mid-month.