The Dangerous Secret Behind the Latest Agreement
Since the onset of the confrontation, it has been clear that Trump is not seeking a traditional ceasefire that preserves the dignity of both sides, but rather an agreement that can be presented to the American public as a political and strategic victory.
For this reason, American talk of an agreement has not been detached from the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear file, or sanctions.
On August 1, Trump spoke of the outlines of an agreement that includes opening the strait and ending the Iranian nuclear threat, revealing that Washington views these three issues as parts of a single deal.
The US-Iranian war is no longer measured by the number of missiles launched or the number of airstrikes halted, but by what happens in the hours following in the negotiation room and in the maritime corridors of the Strait of Hormuz.
Here lies the great paradox of the current scene: the war appears militarily less intense than it was at the beginning, yet the causes of the war remain unresolved. The United States has not yet obtained the outcome desired by President Donald Trump, and Iran has not offered the concessions that would allow Washington to declare the confrontation over.
From this specific angle, the most important question is no longer whether the war with Iran has ended, but whether the war has entered a new phase, shifting from missiles and aircraft to sanctions, negotiation, and control over the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the problem is that what Washington desires differs fundamentally from what Tehran can accept.
The real war today revolves around three questions: Who will determine the conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz? What will Iran offer in exchange for the lifting or easing of sanctions? And can Trump secure an agreement that he can present as a "historic deal" without having to return to war? To date, there is no definitive answer.
But it is certain that the battle has moved to a more complex stage, from missiles to sanctions, from aircraft to ships, and from battlefields to negotiation tables. Perhaps this is the scenario closest to the coming phase: not a full-scale war, nor complete peace, but a long-term armed truce, during which both sides negotiate a deal larger than merely opening the strait. Hormuz is no longer just a waterway; it has become a bargaining chip that could determine the shape of the regional order after the Iran war.
The question that will determine the next phase is not whether Trump wants to end the war—he wants to do so on his terms—but whether Iran can provide him with a political victory without having to admit defeat.
If both sides find an answer to this equation, peace may be near. If they fail, Hormuz will remain the key to the next war, even if the guns fall silent today.
The war has led to a sharp decline in oil traffic through the strait, which previously handled massive volumes of global oil and gas. Latest reports indicate that flows have dropped to about five million barrels per day, compared to more than 20 million before the war.
Consequently, actual or partial control over the strait means holding a leverage card against Washington, Gulf states, and global markets simultaneously.
However, the paradox is that this Iranian card may be a temporary weapon that cannot be retained forever.
Iran can negotiate a mechanism for opening the strait, security or navigational arrangements, and perhaps specific nuclear constraints, but it will be highly sensitive to any agreement interpreted domestically as surrender to the United States. Here lies Trump’s dilemma: How can Iran obtain an exit that preserves its dignity, while Trump simultaneously secures a declaration of victory?
This is the deal that has not yet been born.
A Saudi writer
