Protests return to Iran's streets... and the big explosion is inevitable!
- Gas queues overflow... Qalibaf acknowledges the pain of sanctions... The public faces shortages, the collapse of the rial, and soaring inflation
Washington, Tehran, Capitals – Agencies: In a new indicator of escalating economic and social pressures facing Tehran, coinciding with the currency’s depreciation, rising inflation, and deepening fears of shortages in basic goods, labor protests and popular movements have spread across several Iranian regions, signaling a potential major explosion in the coming days. The US Wall Street Journal reported that workers in vital sectors, including oil and gas, steel, and education, participated in protests over job losses, delayed wages, and deteriorating living conditions. These movements coincide with a surge in the purchase and stockpiling of fuel and foodstuffs, driven by fears of worsening shortages and distribution restrictions. The newspaper noted that economic pressures have intensified due to the war, US sanctions, and the naval blockade imposed on Iran, while Iranians’ purchasing power has plummeted to record lows, with the dollar reaching approximately 2 million Iranian rials—a sharp reflection of the local currency’s collapse.
Meanwhile, the United States again threatened today to tighten economic sanctions on Iran to push the regime toward collapse. The Wall Street Journal stated that signs of anxiety were not limited to the capital, Tehran, but extended to other cities and regions, where residents are seeking to secure basic necessities in anticipation of further supply disruptions. The country is facing damage to some refining facilities and a decline in imports. According to the newspaper, the prevailing economic anxiety does not necessarily reflect an immediate actual shortage of all goods, but rather a decline in confidence in the economy’s ability to provide needs stably. This drives citizens to stockpile fuel and food, increasing pressure on markets. The protests come as the Iranian government faces growing internal and external pressures. While US sanctions tighten are choking revenue sources and reducing Iran’s access to the global financial system, the local economy is already suffering from the effects of years of sanctions, inflation, and currency devaluation. The newspaper believes that increasing living pressures may force the Iranian leadership into more difficult choices, particularly as the war continues and economic activity declines.
Conversely, the regime’s capacity to contain protests remains intact, leveraging broad security tools and long experience in handling protest waves. The report noted that some Iranian officials have begun pushing to focus on reviving the economy and ending the war, in contrast to a more hardline current insisting on continuing confrontation and controlling the Strait of Hormuz. This occurs amid an American bet that escalating economic and social pressure will push Tehran back to negotiations. However, analysts warn that economic pressures, despite their growing impact on Iranians’ lives, do not necessarily guarantee a rapid change in the regime’s behavior, which has previously managed to withstand long waves of sanctions and crises.
While the White House reiterated that the Iranian economy is in a state of collapse and facing a catastrophic situation, asserting that the naval blockade on Iran is achieving significant success, long lines of cars filled fuel stations across Iran in recent days. This followed the government’s announcement of a rationing plan that reduced quotas in place for years. The capital, Tehran, along with several other regions, witnessed extensive queues of vehicles waiting at gas stations, amid reports of some stations closing and others running out of stock. In Tehran, fears of rising prices or stricter rationing prompted citizens to flock to fuel stations in large numbers, causing a sudden surge in demand. Some stations imposed limits on the amount of gasoline each vehicle could purchase, while others ceased operations after depleting their supplies. In Karaj, Mashhad, and other cities, reports and citizen testimonies described long queues and difficulties in obtaining gasoline. Information from South Khorasan, in eastern Iran, indicated additional challenges for heavy vehicles in securing diesel. These developments reflected a widening gap between demand and the distribution network’s capacity to meet market needs.
This situation constitutes an acknowledgment of the painful impact of the US sanctions, despite the obduracy of Iranian officials who, in recent weeks, insisted that the country is accustomed to sanctions and that they are nothing new, calling for unity and support for the government amid renewed fears of a new wave of protests. Notably, a sudden increase in gasoline prices in 2019 sparked protests that spread to nearly a hundred cities, including Tehran, resulting in dozens of deaths. Iranian Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf asserted that Iran is engaged in a comprehensive economic war, claiming that his country would defeat its adversaries through government efforts and the resilience of its people. In a speech before parliament, Qalibaf emphasized that the government must prioritize improving living standards, enhancing purchasing power, creating jobs for youth, and ensuring economic security, amid the repercussions of the war and escalating external pressures on the country. He warned, according to his claims, that internal divisions and the decline of Iran’s domestic capabilities were specifically among the objectives Tehran’s adversaries sought to achieve. Meanwhile, Iranian Executive Vice President Mohammad Jafari Qaem Maghami acknowledged that the US naval blockade on Iran’s ports prevents fuel imports, noting that domestic production is insufficient to meet demand. The official Iranian news agency, IRNA, quoted Qaem Maghami as saying that gasoline production is inadequate and that, due to the US naval blockade, Iran cannot import it.
