Lebanon fears a wide-scale war... Battle of 'Ali al-Tahir' likely at any moment
Beirut – “Al-Siyasa” – Omar Al-Bardan
Lebanese officials are increasingly apprehensive that the situation in the south is on the brink of new military confrontations between Lebanon and Hezbollah at any moment, with the primary focus being the “Mount Ali al-Tahir battle.” This Israeli target is no longer hidden, and its indicators have become more pronounced recently, most notably through the visit of Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz deep into the occupied southern territories and his threats against Lebanon and Hezbollah. Lebanese government fears are intensifying that Israel is preparing the ground for a broad military operation targeting Mount Ali al-Tahir and all surrounding areas, extending to Mount al-Rayyan, which is nearby and overlooks the city of Sidon. Senior officials do not rule out the possibility that Israel might detonate Mount Ali al-Tahir to destroy the fortifications Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps have established beneath it, which house dozens of fighters from both sides, reaching up to the heights of Mount al-Rayyan and the adjacent villages, including the town of Aishiyeh, the birthplace of Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.
In this context, prominent parliamentary sources told “Al-Siyasa” after their recent visit to President Aoun that Lebanon has begun intensive consultations with the Americans to urge them to intervene with Israel to halt any military action against Ali al-Tahir or nearby areas, as such an operation could lead to a wide-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, which will not remain passive if its elements located in tunnels beneath the mountain are targeted. Attempts by Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam to ascertain Washington’s true stance during their meetings with U.S. Ambassador to Beirut Michael Weiss yielded no satisfactory answers, thereby heightening the atmosphere of anxiety and uncertainty. According to “Al-Siyasa” sources, Speaker Berri was firm in his remarks to Ambassador Weiss, stating that the key to stability lies in compelling Israel to cease its war and withdraw to the international borders. He emphasized that Israel has not stopped its violations and attacks on Lebanon and the south, arguing that the core problem does not lie in the mechanisms of deployment or in identifying areas that could serve as experimental phases, but rather in the continuation of Israeli aggression and the failure to adhere to previously agreed-upon terms. He reiterated the necessity of implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
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Military reports reveal field preparations by the Israeli occupation army in the vicinity of Ali al-Tahir, alongside intermittent maneuvers, coinciding with continuous drone strikes targeting what are believed to be tunnel entrances within the mountain. Meanwhile, Hezbollah does not rule out the possibility that Israel, with US green light, could launch a major offensive on the mountain, given its strategic position overlooking the cities of Nabatieh and Sidon and their surrounding villages. Furthermore, the occupation considers it Hezbollah’s most fortified military center in southern Lebanon, and its capture would constitute a significant defeat for the party and Iran’s military wings in Lebanon and the region.
Based on these reports, Israel does not appear inclined to halt the demolition of remaining villages and towns it occupies in the Yellow Zone, despite the Lebanese Prime Minister’s insistence on stopping Israeli destruction operations in the south, arguing that their continuation contradicts the existing trajectory and efforts aimed at stabilizing the ceasefire and resolving outstanding issues on the ground. It is evident from the available data that Israel is not willing to expand the scope of the experimental zones being implemented within the negotiation framework, which would allow for the expansion of the Lebanese Army’s deployment and its enhanced presence on the ground. Nor is it responding to Beirut’s demand for a clear and specific timeline for withdrawal from Lebanese territories, thereby moving the file from general understandings to measurable and monitorable implementation steps.
While sources revealed that five countries—Britain, Italy, Switzerland, Canada, and Azerbaijan—have been proposed so far to participate in a mission to verify the Lebanese Army’s operations in the experimental zones designated for the withdrawal of Hezbollah’s weapons, Lebanon is countering Israel’s refusal to make concessions at the negotiating table by insisting on its demands to compel Israel to implement a permanent ceasefire and expand the framework of the experimental zones. Consequently, the stalemate that characterized the previous round of negotiations increases the risks of disrupting talks between the two countries, despite US statements about continuing the process. Lebanon views with considerable concern the fate of the negotiation process, given Israel’s unwillingness to expand the experimental zones to include the cities of Bint Jbeil and Khiam. This has prompted Lebanese diplomatic moves toward Washington to inform it of the actual situation and subsequently urge it to exert efforts to push Israel to fulfill its commitments regarding the implementation of the Framework Agreement, specifically concerning the ceasefire and withdrawal from additional occupied areas, as this is essential for completing the talks. Such actions are not in the interest of either negotiating party and would deal a blow to the credibility of the US sponsor, which pledged to act as an honest mediator to bring the talks to a successful conclusion. This is what Lebanon expects from the administration of President Donald Trump, who informed his Lebanese counterpart that he would not allow the Framework Agreement to be undermined.
As indicators point to the approaching date of the battle for Ali al-Tahir, Hezbollah is determined to confront, as confirmed by its Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem, who described the ongoing situation as an “existential war” and stressed that “whoever bets on surrender is betting on a mirage.”
