Revisiting the Russian-Ukrainian Landscape
Zelensky is a European president and a key strategic ally to his friends on the Old Continent; he is the first line of defense for their heartland against the rampaging Russian bear on their borders, with Poland and Romania behind him, which would become easy prey for Russia’s fangs if his strength wanes or his resolve weakens. The United States is like oxygen to Kyiv; no matter how strong Europe is or how many promises it makes to support Ukraine, it lacks the capacity to replace Washington in this role.
On the other hand, logic dictates that “Trump’s America” must defend Ukraine with all its coercive means against any Russian victory that may loom on the horizon, following recent changes. The US has no luxury of choice in this regard, unless Trump is the new “American Gorbachev,” who arrived with Russian intelligence backing to destroy the world’s largest economy. This seems far-fetched given the strength of the institutions enjoyed by the world’s leading lady.
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Certainly, if Trump turns his back on Kyiv, Moscow will need only a few days to achieve a decisive victory, allowing it to control mineral-rich areas containing more than 50 types of rare minerals, which Washington describes as highly critical, valued at over $10 trillion. These include zirconium, cadmium, and lithium, used in important strategic industries such as spacecraft, jet engines, and nuclear reactors.
It is worth noting that Europeans have suffered economically more than anyone else due to their compliance with the US decision to impose sanctions on Moscow and to stop relying on cheap Russian gas, replacing it with more expensive American gas. The coming days remain packed with surprises, carrying many details that will define the contours of international politics, the nature of future conflicts, and the balance of power within them.
Let us wait and see whether Gulf states, and the deployment of their diplomacy, will mark the beginning of a genuine détente that the world needs to catch its breath. After undermining Iran and its geopolitical objectives, and bringing about qualitative change thereafter, will America abandon its European allies to appease the Russians? How will Europeans respond to their losses from this conflict, and what can their governments do to preserve the face tarnished by Washington? Will countries of the “Yellow Continent” resume their relationship with Moscow? Also, what price will Putin pay to stop the war cycle that is draining his army?
What is Ukraine’s position in this settlement, which is taking place in the hot atmosphere of the Arab world, far from Europe’s frost? And what will the world gain from this reconciliation if it materializes?
Many open questions and shocking answers await the Western and Arab public spheres, given the presence of a “new-old” leader in the White House, who manages the scene with a businessman’s mindset, seeking quick profits, with insufficient regard for future plans or strategic risks. Everything has become possible, and the lexicon of this era no longer includes the word “impossible.”
Saudi writer and researcher
