Gulf Oil Exports Recover 81% of Pre-War Levels in September - Sarmad
Despite the ongoing war and escalating security risks in the Strait of Hormuz, oil exports from Gulf states, excluding Iran, managed to recover to approximately 81% of their pre-war levels in September, signaling the ability of Gulf producers to adapt to disruptions in navigation and energy supplies.
Data from Fortex, as reported by Reuters on Tuesday, showed that flows of crude oil, condensates, refined fuels, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, and Iraq totaled around 19.2 million barrels per day in September, compared to an average of 23.6 million barrels per day during the year preceding the outbreak of war on February 28.
The largest recovery was seen in crude and condensate exports, which reached approximately 16.3 million barrels per day, equivalent to 91% of pre-war levels, while exports of refined products, including diesel, jet fuel, and LNG, remained at only about 60% of pre-war levels.
Saudi Arabia led the bulk of this recovery, with its crude and condensate exports rising by approximately 4.2 million barrels per day in September compared to August, reaching 6.6 million barrels per day.
Exports from the UAE and Iraq also increased, offsetting declines in exports from Kuwait and Qatar, alongside the near halt of Iranian exports due to U.S. sanctions.
Other data indicate that crude oil exports from the Middle East exceeded pre-war levels on some days in September, with a seven-day moving average reaching approximately 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, and levels surpassing pre-war figures on 14 days of the month.
However, this recovery does not mean a return to normalcy in the energy market; oil tankers still face increasing risks in the Strait of Hormuz, with seven targeting incidents against tankers recorded during the first week of October, while shipping and insurance costs have risen sharply.
Another key issue is the shortage of refining capacity, particularly for diesel and jet fuel, which has kept oil prices above $100 per barrel despite improved crude flows.
Reuters notes that the oil market’s problem has become more logistical than a shortage of crude, with continued increases in transportation and insurance costs and disruptions to trade routes.
