Oil Continues Gains After US and Iranian Attacks on Ships - Sarmad
Oil prices continued their rise on Monday as fears mounted over a prolonged disruption to Middle East supplies following reciprocal attacks by the United States and Iran on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and other areas.
Brent crude futures rose 52 cents, or 0.54 percent, to $96.80 a barrel by 23:54 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 66 cents, or 0.72 percent, to $92.14 a barrel.
Brent had risen 7.8 percent last week, while WTI gained about 10 percent, after the U.S. and Iran resumed their attacks, leading to a decline in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which previously carried one-fifth of global oil supplies before the war.
U.S. Central Command said its forces targeted three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one near Kharg Island, close to Iran’s main oil export hub.
The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced on Saturday that it had targeted three oil tankers traveling on unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as three U.S. ships in various areas. Maritime information company Marex said the attacks on Saturday represented a “significant escalation in maritime conflict.”
It added, “Commercial tankers are now being deliberately used as tools for mutual economic pressure, significantly blurring the previous distinction between military confrontation and commercial shipping.”
Data released on Monday by Kpler showed that the daily average number of bulk cargo ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz was 10 over the past 10 days, the lowest level since May.
The OPEC+ alliance said it decided to keep its oil production policy unchanged for October during a meeting held on Sunday, as the alliance must agree on new quotas before determining its next steps on production.
Analysts at ANZ Bank said in a note that the most likely scenario is a prolonged confrontation interspersed with calculated military moves by the U.S. and Iran, which is likely to delay the full recovery of Middle East supplies.
They added, “We expect exports to remain constrained for the rest of 2026, with a gradual reopening in late Q4 2026,” and do not expect flow levels to return to pre-war levels until late Q1 or early Q2 2027.
