Sarmad Infographic: Binsent: The Gulf seeks a route away from the Strait of Hormuz - Sarmad
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested in an interview with US channel 12News that the Strait of Hormuz will lose its significance within the next two years, stating that more than 50 to 70 percent of the energy currently transiting through the strait will be transported via underground pipelines.
Gulf Arab states are moving to reassess strategic plans for new pipelines, aiming to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz amid growing concerns over potential security threats.
The Strait of Hormuz serves as a transit route for approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas exports. When Iran closed it following US and Israeli strikes last February, hundreds of oil tankers were stranded, causing widespread disruptions in global energy supplies.
The war has once again highlighted the strategic importance of Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline, which stretches 1,200 kilometers. Built in the 1980s amid fears of the strait being closed during the Iran-Iraq Tanker War, it is now a vital artery transporting around 7 million barrels daily to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz entirely.
Reuters previously reported that five informed sources said Saudi Arabia is considering increasing the capacity of its crude oil pipeline to the western coast on the Red Sea to 9 million barrels per day, which would enable it and possibly its neighbors to transport larger volumes of oil without needing to cross the Strait of Hormuz.
Energy sector officials and executives stated that building new pipelines may be the only way to reduce Gulf states’ dependence on the strait and avoid potential disruptions, despite the high costs, political complexities, and long timeframes required to complete such projects.
In this context, economic expert Mohammed Al-Anqari, in a previous interview with “Al Arabiya Business,” stated that the importance of the Strait of Hormuz will decline over the next decade, as Gulf states move away from tying their economies to a single transit route, in light of building economic models spanning the coming decades.
Al-Anqari pointed to the future implementation of a comprehensive restructuring of supply chains across Gulf states, noting that geography strongly favors Saudi Arabia due to its position on two coasts, its vast land area, and northern land borders that allow for reshaping supply maps.
He added that this shift would trigger a qualitative leap in Saudi Arabia’s logistics sector, one of the key sectors targeted under Saudi Vision 2030, thereby strengthening the kingdom’s position as a regional and global hub for supply chains.
Al-Anqari said that short-term outlooks point to a return to normal navigation, emphasizing that the full, immediate, and safe reopening of the strait was a clear US demand, as it is an international waterway that no party has the right to control.
He clarified that some Iranian statements regarding technical or operational restrictions on the strait primarily target the Iranian domestic audience, while the external messaging is entirely different, a point also confirmed by Iranian officials. He noted that limited violations during the ceasefire do not alter the grand strategy to end the conflict.
Regarding developments in strait navigation, the administration of US President Donald Trump repeatedly indicated in recent weeks that an agreement to open the strait could be imminent, before Iran denied holding talks. It remains unclear whether the latest round of negotiations will lead to a more sustainable arrangement.
Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance affirmed on Saturday that Washington will continue to pressure Iran, considering that “the Iranians are hurting and want to end this.”
Vance clarified that Washington is working on “establishing a pathway that allows ships to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz,” adding, “Iran has informed us that it will allow the maximum possible flow of oil through Hormuz, but we do not trust them.” The US Vice President continued, “Our plan includes Iran’s commitment not to fire on commercial vessels.”
The US Vice President expressed Washington’s hope that negotiations with Iran would lead to a return of energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels. Speaking on Fox News, in response to a question about the current status of the Strait of Hormuz in the event of an agreement, Vance said, “We expect to see the same volume of oil and gas flowing from the Gulf region as before the conflict. Iran has informed us of its intention to do so. This is what the international coalition in the Gulf desires.”
A senior Iranian source and two regional officials told Reuters on Wednesday that a proposed agreement between Iran and the Sultanate of Oman, aimed at helping to end the five-month war between Tehran and the United States, would grant Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, representing one of the largest concessions offered to Iran to date.
However, US officials insist they will never agree to Iran controlling navigation in the world’s most critical commercial waterway for energy supplies. It remains unclear whether they have sought to change the terms of the agreement.
Iran has exploited the combat operations to justify imposing fees on oil tankers. This, along with firing on ships attempting to cross the strait without its permission, has dangerously disrupted global shipments, causing energy prices to rise and fueling inflation.
Meanwhile, Ali Al-Riyami, former director of oil marketing at the Omani Ministry of Energy and Minerals, stated that the US Treasury Secretary’s remarks about completely bypassing the Strait of Hormuz within two years are fanciful and unrealistic, as such a shift would take years.
Al-Riyami anticipated a recent breakthrough in Iranian-Omani negotiations due to international pressure and Iranian pragmatism.
For his part, oil expert Mohammed Al-Shatti ruled out the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz losing its importance in the coming years, despite the repercussions of events since March 3, which prompted oil-producing countries to reconsider their export transportation strategies and enhance available alternatives.
In an interview with “Al Arabiya Business,” Al-Shatti explained that recent developments are driving a greater priority for pipelines, whether through joint projects among Gulf countries or via bilateral agreements, alongside increased storage capacities outside the region, contributing to reduced reliance on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
He emphasized that the strait will remain the primary route for the region’s exports, given that it offers the shortest path to major markets requiring oil, petroleum products, chemicals, and gas, particularly Asian countries.
He added that oil and petroleum products are increasingly heading toward Asian markets, making it difficult to completely bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Al-Shatti said Gulf countries would not completely abandon using the strait in favor of alternative routes, given its importance in shortening the distance to Asian markets, but it is expected that they will adopt supporting strategies, including developing pipelines and increasing oil and product storage outside Gulf states.
On the rumors of an agreement being worked on by Iran and Oman to designate ship transit routes, such that ships entering would pass through Iranian waters and exit through Omani waters, Al-Shatti viewed this arrangement as practically and logistically feasible.
He clarified that the Iranian side of the strait is characterized by shallow waters, making it suitable for incoming vessels, whereas the Omani side features greater depth, allowing loaded ships to navigate through it. Al-Shatti stressed that any such arrangement must be implemented within the framework of international law and under the auspices of the United Nations, ensuring the smooth resumption of navigation and energy security, while safeguarding freedom of navigation free from any posturing or imposition of fees.
