Ahmed al-Alawani Lured to Beirut and Killed... Does the Political Assassination Strain Lebanon-Iraq Relations?

Lebanon, caught between the fire of its front with Israel and the uncertain outcomes of the Iran front, lacked only the addition of internal security threats to the major concerns it faces. No one controls the “safety rings” in this context, given the near-impossible balance the state seeks to maintain between reducing the “explosive burden” in any new war that Hezbollah drags the country into, and preventing tensions that could lead to civil conflict over the issue of restricting arms. This has effectively placed Lebanon in a state of “weightlessness” regarding massive developments, as if it were trapped in a capsule orbiting Tehran under the influence of its “compulsive gravity.”

Following the seizure on October 5 in Dahr el-Bider of a shipment of C-4 and similar explosives belonging to Hezbollah—which remains before the judiciary outside the scope of a “terrorist” designation—Lebanon experienced two highly dangerous developments. The first was the assassination of former Iraqi MP Ahmed al-Alawani in Beirut after a luring operation whose background motives remain unresolved. The second was the arrest of the “Group of Five” from Hezbollah in a mixed zone between Bsharri and Byblos in northern Lebanon. They were found in possession of maps, documents, papers, and “codes,” some of which they had torn up before the entire apartment where they were residing in the Koura district was “swept” to erase all traces of the “cell’s” activities.

These events are characterized by each acquiring a more dangerous aspect in one of its facets, while intersecting in that Lebanon’s security reality—which underpins the state’s strategy of waiting for what will happen in the region by preventing it from being shaken by the shock of internal collision—now shows signs of two indicators, both bitter, suggesting that security is exposed to encroachments, whether for immediate purposes or to prepare for “pouncing” scenarios on the interior of the same type the Lebanese authorities seek to avoid. These indicators are:

- A fragmentation that enables assassination operations feared to be linked to what is being plotted for Iraq or to settle scores retroactively, given Alawani’s known stance against Iran and its militias, unless investigations reveal personal motives. Judicial sources are narrowing down the presumed circumstances of the crime between “political crime” and “clan liquidation,” with the former being more likely.

Political sources indicate that regardless of the true hypothesis, this does not diminish the severity of the serious dimensions of the operation itself or the professional manner in which it was carried out. There are fears that it involves geographical camouflage, dialectal disguise, and “complex” stages in the luring process, including renting an apartment in the New Road neighborhood (where the former MP was killed) and “covering tracks.” Thus, the arrest of a Lebanese national (and the pursuit of two individuals speaking with a Syrian accent, who are likely to have entered Syrian territory, and it cannot be entirely ruled out that they are Iraqis), along with the initiation of an investigation with him, may not be sufficient to fully uncover the background and the “real killer.”

- A preemptive warming-up, integrated with vanguard preparations to meet “the day after” on the Iran front (and its Lebanese twin), whether it erupts or moves toward a settlement. This is feared to be a “Houthi-style” scenario in Yemen, meaning an attempt to seize control of the interior and impose an equation that pressures the outside world for a double exchange: alongside the Israeli withdrawal from the south, and preventing the complete dismantling of Hezbollah’s arsenal, or at least making its “internal” (non-strategic) part a gateway to the “Taif Arms” deal, thereby cementing operations that erode the balances of power and the Taif Constitution, which have been enforced by fait accompli since 2008 at the systemic level.

Compounding the urgency of the Lebanese reality, whose clear contours of a slide into a highly alarming security dimension have emerged, is that these developments occur while domestic debate rages over the boundaries of the Lebanese Army’s role and the authority of the President of the Republic and the government over it, in light of statements by its commander, Major General Rodolphe Haykal, which sparked internal objections deemed an overreach of executive power and a consolidation of the military institution’s “independence” in shaping policies and categorizing Lebanese citizens as patriotic or unpatriotic. It is not only the domestic repercussions of this debate that raise concerns about a misjudgment of the sensitivity of the regional and local moment; the fallout from the Army commander’s remarks targeting critics of the military institution also impacts its pivotal role in the entire diplomatic and military framework of direct negotiations between Beirut and Tel Aviv, under US sponsorship, and the tripartite “Framework Agreement” signed among them, which addresses the issue of Israel’s withdrawal from the south and the disarmament of Hezbollah’s weapons across all of Lebanon.

The day after a spokesperson for the US State Department responded to Haykal’s remarks, affirming via MTV channel that “the discourse diagnosing Lebanon’s problems does not contribute to restoring its sovereignty, and we still expect the Lebanese Army to proceed with verification procedures for the disarmament of Hezbollah, starting from experimental areas and extending to all parts of the country, and that the Israeli Army should reciprocate,” President of the Republic Major General Joseph Aoun entered the fray to support the Army, emphasizing “the necessity of maintaining internal cohesion amid regional and international developments,” and stating that “Lebanon’s problem is with those who oppose the logic of the state, and we heard them attacking the Army and security forces yesterday. No one can claim sovereignty and love for Lebanon while criticizing the Army and security forces that work to preserve security and stability in the country.”

Security developments in Lebanon have forced Prime Minister Nawaf Salam to monitor them from the Turkish city of Antalya, where he chaired the Lebanese delegation participating in the Climate Summit, specifically “the case of the group of young men arrested in the area between the mountains of Bsharri and Bkerkesh, and the suspicions raised regarding the nature of their activities, which warrant investigation and scrutiny.”

In this context, Salam, according to his media office, held communications with Interior Minister Ahmad Hajjar, Justice Minister Adil Nassar, the Distinguished Public Prosecutor Judge Ahmad Ramy Al-Hajj, and the Director General of Internal Security Forces Major General Raad Abdullah, to follow up on the latest developments in the case and the measures taken regarding it.

He affirmed that the era of impunity and “evasion” has ended, stressing that ongoing investigations will have no ceiling other than the ceiling of the law, and that leniency in uncovering the circumstances of the case and holding accountable anyone proven to be involved will not be permitted.

Salam also strongly condemned “the murder of former Iraqi MP Ahmad Al-Alwani in Beirut,” praising the efforts made by judicial and security agencies to uncover the circumstances of the crime and determine responsibilities. He stressed that “Beirut cannot remain a playground for crime and security impunity,” affirming that protecting the security of the capital and ensuring the safety of all residents on Lebanese soil constitute a priority that cannot be compromised.

Meanwhile, Iraqi President Nizar Al-Amidi affirmed to Salam the necessity of uncovering the circumstances of Al-Alwani’s assassination, amid expectations that this file would be addressed during the visit of Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Allaq to Beirut on the 18th. This crime occupied a wide space of attention in the Lebanese capital, extending to Erbil, where Al-Alwani resided.

Iraqi Ambassador to Beirut, Mohammad Reza Al-Husseini, announced that “suspicions surround individuals who accompanied Al-Alawani from the hotel to the apartment where he was found murdered,” affirming that the embassy is following up on Lebanese security investigations to uncover the circumstances of the crime and identify the perpetrators.

Al-Husseini told Iraq’s official WAQAA News Agency that “the examination of the corpse at Zahle Government Hospital, in the presence of the deceased’s brother-in-law, alongside the data received sequentially on Tuesday night, confirmed that the body belongs to former MP Ahmad Al-Alawani.” He added, “The decomposition of the corpse and the absence of most of his facial features led the Lebanese Distinguished Prosecutor General to issue an order for a DNA test to definitively verify the identity of the corpse.” He praised “the full cooperation shown by Judge Al-Hajj, heads of security agencies, and the concerned officers.”

Al-Alawani’s media office, in a clarifying statement, revealed additional details regarding his recent movements, confirming that he arrived in Beirut on November 5 aboard Middle East Airlines flight ME325 from Erbil, which landed at Rafic Hariri International Airport at 16:41.

The statement clarified that “surveillance footage shows individuals leaving the apartment at 16:55, just 14 minutes after the plane’s landing, while it is presumed that Al-Alawani left the airport around 17:15 after completing entry procedures and collecting his luggage, with the confirmation that his route and time of arrival at his residence still require verification.”

It noted that “the last documented contact between Al-Alawani and his media office occurred at 21:05, lasting 2 minutes and 30 seconds, during which he informed them of his arrival in Beirut and his transfer from the airport to his residence.”

It added that preliminary information points to “the possibility that the individuals appearing in the recordings returned to the building around 23:00, before leaving at 23:57. These timings do not establish the time of the crime, which will be determined based on forensic pathology and criminal investigation results.”

The media office denied the accuracy of news reports, timings, and details attributed to him without being officially issued by him, affirming that Al-Alawani was not staying in any hotel on the day of his arrival in Beirut, and that the last documented contact with him was limited to confirming his arrival and transfer to his residence.

It called on Lebanese security and judicial authorities, primarily the General Security Directorate and the competent Public Prosecution, to identify the individuals appearing in the recordings and investigate their connection to the apartment and the crime, review surveillance footage from the airport, the building, and surrounding roads, and compare it with flight data and entry records, as well as “investigate the possibility of prior communications or arrangements related to his arrival and the movements of the persons of interest.”

At the same time, the General Security Directorate continued its investigation into the crime, focusing on identifying the two suspects allegedly involved in the crime, whose faces appeared in surveillance camera footage. Al-Alawani was seen entering the apartment with them on the new road, and it appeared he was with them of his own free will.

Lebanese LBCI channel reported that Al-Alawani’s travel bag was found inside the apartment placed on the bedroom bed, while his clothes were hanging, including two formal suits and a white dishdasha, suggesting the possibility that the apartment was rented specifically for his stay.

Al-Alawani was found wearing sportswear, suggesting he changed his clothes after entering the apartment and that he was sitting comfortably with the two individuals before the crime occurred.

Black hair was also found on the apartment floor, suspected to belong to one of the suspects, suggesting that Al-Alawani resisted during the crime.

Media reports indicated that Al-Alwani had booked a room in a hotel before moving to an apartment rented by two Syrians and a Lebanese for eight days at a rate of $100 per day. However, the landlords received payment only for the first two days, and the apartment was occupied without any identification documents. The real estate agent attempted to contact them after the rental period ended but received no response, before security forces entered the apartment and discovered the body.

Lebanese judicial sources were quoted as expressing suspicion that three individuals were involved, including the detained Lebanese national and two non-Lebanese individuals who entered Syria shortly after the crime was committed and arrived in Lebanon on the same day Al-Alwani reached Beirut. Additional information revealed that Al-Alwani possessed three mobile phones in Beirut, all of which were later deactivated.

His family confirmed that they had not received any ransom demands following his disappearance.

Al-Arabiya channel reported that Al-Alwani’s family believes he was lured, stating, “They are trying to access his phone to identify the person who lured him to Beirut, who asked him not to reveal his identity to his family, wife, and son, and urged him to come to Lebanon immediately within a matter of hours.”

According to family sources, Al-Alwani (from Anbar province) “did not move easily, and his movements were limited to Erbil due to his close ties in the Kurdistan Region. Given his firm stance against Iran and armed factions within Iraq,” it is noted that activists in Beirut circulated posts featuring his views, in which he described former Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah as a “liar.” Al-Alwani was known for his opposition to the government of former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and for leading protests in his province in 2013. He was arrested in December of that year, sentenced to death in 2014, and released in April 2025.

Regarding the “Bcharre cell” linked to Hezbollah, a statement by judicial deputies Strida Jouja and Melhem Touq confirmed the details revealed by media reports. They stated, “According to circulating information, a patrol from the Bcharre gendarmerie unit suspected five individuals moving through a barren area located between the districts of Bcharre and Byblos. It was determined that one of them was from Zgharta town, which is adjacent to the Byblos district, while the others hailed from areas including Bint Jbeil, Khiam, Sidon, and Northern Bekaa.”

Upon the patrol’s approach, the five individuals allegedly attempted to tear up documents they were carrying, the remnants of which were later found inside the vehicle they were using.

The statement added, “The most alarming aspect of the published information is that, according to security sources, these documents contained names distributed among various groups, references to the ‘Rashkida group’ and the ‘Koura group,’ as well as descriptions of weapons, including the term ‘snipers.’”

Furthermore, it was reported that the five individuals moved around without mobile phones, leaving them in an apartment in the town of Bnaneh in the Koura district, which confirms that they constituted a security group.

Jouja and Touq considered that “what occurred cannot be treated as a routine security incident or passed over lightly, given the serious and troubling questions it raises regarding citizens’ security and safety, and the presence of organized security activity in the area where the suspects were arrested—an area far removed from any contact line with the Israeli enemy.” Reports revealed that “immediately after news of the arrest spread, other Hezbollah elements went to the house where the detainees were staying (in Bnaneh town, Koura) and removed the mobile phones from it.”