Herzog on Halting US Military Aid: The News Hit Me Like a Bolt from the Blue on a Clear Day

Days after U.S. President Donald Trump’s surprise declaration that military aid to Israel would cease by the end of the year, Tel Aviv remains unaware of and unable to decipher the meaning of his statements, and whether he intended them seriously or merely made them in an attempt to garner votes and assist Republican candidates in the midterm congressional elections, according to the Hebrew website Ynet.

This confusion was also clearly evident in statements made by Israeli President Isaac Herzog before representatives of the Yesh Atid party, led by Gadi Eisenkot.

Herzog said, “The issue of aid worries me greatly; it struck me like a bolt from the blue on a clear day.”

There is considerable confusion and embarrassment on the Israeli side, and even Americans lack answers.

Official Israeli sources state that they currently have no details regarding the actual situation.

An insider added, “The system is also trying to understand the matter, and I do not believe the Americans have answers at this stage, given everything happening there. I assume we will communicate with them after the initial shock of the election results subsides.”

The confusion stems from the possibility of secret understandings reached behind the scenes between Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the cessation or reduction of aid to Israel, but details of these understandings, particularly timelines, have not yet been disclosed.

In principle, there is a memorandum of understanding between the two countries, which came into effect during the Obama administration and remains valid until 2028.

Under its terms, Israel receives $3.8 billion annually for ten years. Two years of the agreement remain, 2027 and 2028, totaling an additional $7.6 billion for Israel, a substantial sum by any measure.

At first glance, the situation seems unreasonable. Which country would agree to relinquish aid of such magnitude?

Insider Israeli officials believe that Trump did not actually intend to halt aid by the end of the year, but was referring to a new agreement that would replace the current memorandum of understanding.

However, past experiences suggest that Trump does not make statements out of thin air, and there is a kernel of truth behind his words.

According to Netanyahu’s statements before the elections, Israel seeks to reach a new agreement before the convening of the new Congress and the swearing-in of its members on January 3, 2027, i.e., within the next two months.

Netanyahu had stated that Israel would gradually phase out aid under the new agreement, eventually reducing it to zero over ten years.

He acknowledged that, under current circumstances, one must become accustomed to the idea that Congress will no longer approve the provision of aid.

In negotiations generally, Israel speaks of transitioning from an aid agreement to a cooperation agreement in the fields of military research and development, whereby each country invests funds in developing weapons and military technologies that benefit both nations.

In other words, the United States would have an interest in injecting funds, as it would benefit from the development of shared weapons.

But even if the old agreement is not amended, there are concerns that the new Congress will refuse to approve the continuation of aid during the remaining two years, or will place obstacles in the way of passing aid packages.

Here enters one important variable: Who will head the Israeli government?

They will certainly wish to open a new page with Israel, and the Israeli government will have an interest in repairing relations with the United States.

It is also possible that Eisenkot will not agree to relinquish aid during the remaining two years.

Israel believes that the United States will not rush to halt security aid, partly because the U.S. economy profits from it.

According to studies conducted in Israel, cutting off aid would harm no fewer than one million American families whose livelihoods depend on manufacturing weapons and ammunition purchased by Israel.

Since the Knesset elections, Netanyahu has remained silent and has not addressed the issue of military aid at all, while his close associates have refrained from providing briefings or leaks to the press.

The question is: Does this stem from ignorance, or from a deliberate choice to keep their cards close to their chest?

Despite the entry of representatives with anti-Israel stances, including Muslims, particularly Abdul Sattar, Democrats have ultimately strengthened the position of moderates within the party and weakened extremists.

If another government is formed in Israel that changes its policies, it will likely receive cooperation from Democrats.

When asked about Trump’s statement on halting aid to Israel, Sattar replied, “I agree with him on this matter, and I would be very happy to work with him on it.”

At the end of the discussion, a senior Israeli official was questioned about U.S. military aid, to which he responded, “No one knows anything, except that Bibi promised Trump to cut off aid without causing any problems.”