Trump's Defeat... A Strategic Shock Reshaping Israel's Bets

- How will Israel contain the significant decline in bipartisan support... and what is it betting on?

- Will the Trump administration exploit this period through a broad military escalation?

In a single night, the equation Israel had bet on for years was overturned. The 2026 U.S. midterm elections were not merely an electoral defeat for the Republican Party, but a political earthquake that toppled Republican control of both chambers of Congress, leaving Israel facing the most critical strategic question in decades: What do you do when the ally upon which all your strategies were built collapses?

The government of Benjamin Netanyahu had bet almost entirely on its alliance with President Donald Trump and the Republican Party, going so far as to wager that “the American two-party system is dead.” Instead, the result was a “blue tsunami” that swept through Washington, leaving Tel Aviv in a state of strategic shock by every measure.

Democrats now control Congress entirely, and Trump enters a “lame-duck” phase without legislative cover, while traditional allies within the Democratic Party face unprecedented pressure from their base to adopt tougher stances toward Israel.

The question now imposing itself is: How will Israel contain this major decline in bipartisan support in the coming period?

From exploiting the “lame-duck” period to cementing facts on the ground, to playing on internal divisions within the Democratic Party, to attempting to rebuild the bipartisan alliance before it is too late... all these paths reveal a single truth: Israel is no longer betting solely on Trump, but is trying—under the weight of the shock—to redistribute its bets before the dust settles.

One of Israel’s most urgent bets lies in the transitional period between the November 2026 elections and the swearing-in of the new Congress in January 2027. During this period, Trump remains in power while Republicans lack legislative control.

Barbara Slavin of the Stimson Institute warned, in an analysis circulated by U.S. policy circles, that the Trump administration might exploit this period through a broad military escalation. She noted that Netanyahu might see this moment as an opportunity to persuade Trump to resume the military campaign against Iran, particularly after his previous attempts failed before the Israeli elections.

In this context, Chuck Freilich, former National Security Advisor to Israel, stated that “launching a military attack after the U.S. elections is a realistic possibility,” adding, “Ultimately, it depends on Trump, because Israel cannot move without his support, and it naturally prefers joint action with the United States.”

The practical bet here is that the new Democratic Congress, despite its opposition, will not be able to halt an ongoing military operation quickly enough. However, analysts warn that an “unfriendly Congress” could raise the political cost of any Trump support for Israel.

In an analysis in *Israel Hayom*, Professor Oded Sommer, head of the Barak Center for Leadership and the Department of Political Science at Tel Aviv University, named individuals viewed as potential Israeli bets for the future: John Ossoff of Georgia, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, and Rahm Emanuel. He described them as “expert politicians, all four Jewish and all four pro-Israel, even if each does so in his own way.”

Conversely, *The Jerusalem Post* notes that the new Democratic leaders in Congress (Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer) are facing a “huge headache.” Both have a history of supporting Israel, but they will face immense pressure from the Democratic base to adopt tougher positions.

The newspaper notes that Schumer was one of only seven Democrats who voted against resolutions aimed at banning arms sales to Israel, and that Jeffries voted against ending military aid.

This is the most obvious bet in Israeli analyses. “Israel Hayom” explicitly called for “strengthening ties with supporters in both the Republican and Democratic parties rather than relying solely on the close relationship with Trump.”

Schumer warned, “We must beware of being seduced by the dangerous approach that has taken root here in recent years, which claims that the American two-party system is dead and that it is time to put all our chips on Republicans.”

He added, “Our mission is to ensure that when the dust settles and the transition period ends, we find true friends on both sides of the aisle in key positions.”

The new reality imposed by demographic changes in the United States—most notably the sharp decline in Latino support for Trump, according to Haaretz’s analysis—means that Israel can no longer rely on Trump’s electoral coalition. Young Latino voters, 65% of whom voted for Trump in 2024, shifted to the Democrats in 2026.

Netanyahu had bet that Trump would provide him with security and political cover. But this bet has been severely damaged.

The article pointed to Democrat Troy Jackson’s victory in Maine over Republican Senator Susan Collins (one of Israel’s most prominent supporters since 1997), despite Jackson calling for an end to military aid to Israel.

The Jerusalem Post’s analysis indicates that “the Democrats’ landslide victory dilutes the power of lawmakers hostile to Israel.” Their numbers will increase, but they will remain “a relatively small subgroup within a much larger Democratic majority that includes many moderates and supporters of Israel.” They will not have significant influence over Democratic leadership.

However, there is a latent risk: the midterm elections saw the victory of candidates clearly hostile to Israel, such as Abdul El-Sayed (the first Muslim in the U.S. Senate) in Michigan, and Darialyz Avila Chevalier (a member of the Democratic Socialists of America), who viewed that “ending military aid is not enough.”

Haaretz quoted sources stating that U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth would be a prominent target for congressional hearings, potentially turning committees into a “continuous television program” that creates a platform for every lawmaker aspiring to the presidency in 2028.

In an analysis published by Haaretz by writer Tzvi Bar’el, it appears there is an Israeli bet that U.S. pressure will push toward establishing a “ceasefire” with Iran, although Netanyahu might prefer escalation. However, Bar’el focuses his analysis on domestic issues (partnership with Arabs, the systemic coup) rather than Iran directly.

Conversely, U.S. analysts such as Barbara Slavin warn that Trump may exploit the transition period to launch a broad attack on Iran, but they doubt its feasibility: “It is unclear what resuming hostilities would achieve other than increasing human casualties, destruction, and rising oil prices.”

Israel is betting on maintaining the U.S. military “safety valve”—technology, ammunition, and diplomatic support—despite the decline in bipartisan consensus. Israel recognizes that the new Democratic Congress, while not necessarily hostile, will raise the cost of any unconditional support.

The aftermath of the “Blue Tsunami” is not merely a fleeting transitional phase, but a watershed moment in the relationship between Israel and Washington. Israel, which bet for years that “the two-party system is dead” and clung to Trump as its sole safety valve, now faces a new reality: a fully Democratic Congress, a Republican president in lame-duck status, and a Democratic base rapidly shifting toward harder-line stances.

The inescapable conclusion: Israel no longer bets solely on Trump, nor solely on Republicans. Yet it has not entirely abandoned its “single-basket” mindset. The coming period will reveal whether the shock is sufficient to push Israel toward genuine realignment, or whether it will simply mark a new chapter of misplaced bets, at a time when it no longer has room for error.