Israeli Analysts: Halting US Military Aid to Tel Aviv Reflects Deterioration of Its Strategic Position

Israeli analysts have pointed out that President Donald Trump’s announcement to halt security aid to Israel by the end of this year reflects a deterioration in Israel’s strategic position, necessitating compensation through new taxes and further cuts to civilian budgets, including those for health, education, welfare, and infrastructure.

According to Amos Harel, a military analyst for the newspaper Haaretz, the cessation of security aid, amounting to $3.8 billion annually, “reflects a deterioration in Israel’s strategic position during the regional war under Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership.” He noted that Netanyahu was aware of this decision and did not bother to inform the Israeli public before the Knesset elections.

Harel suggested that the timing of Trump’s Tuesday announcement was not spontaneous. The declaration coincided with the opening of polling stations for the U.S. congressional midterm elections, in which Democratic candidates had clearly called for an end to aid to Israel, arguing that such aid is being used to carry out genocide in Gaza. This move was also seen as a desperate, last-minute attempt by Trump to win back some Republican voters to support his party.

Although the ten-year security aid agreement with Israel is set to expire in 2028, Trump announced that the agreement would end at the end of this year.

Harel added that a sense of separatism is now being felt on both sides of the American political spectrum, particularly among their fringes. In Israel’s case, these shifts reflect a continuous decline lasting at least a decade. Alongside the high cost of living in the United States, there is the fact that Trump and his predecessor, Joe Biden, spent tens of billions of dollars in direct aid to Israel and on two wars against Iran. Among war opponents, including Republicans, Netanyahu is viewed as having convinced Trump to launch a second war against Iran through false promises of regime change.

He noted that “bipartisan support for Israel, which many leaders of American Jewish organizations boasted was an unbreakable principle, is disappearing from the world, and the influence of the pro-Israel AIPAC lobby is gradually weakening, apparently due to its close relationship with Netanyahu. When Netanyahu was described in the American left as a toxic figure, this diagnosis seeped into the lobby, marking a collapse of Israel’s brand.”

He pointed out that the direct economic impact of Trump’s decision—which is likely an American imposition rather than a mutual agreement between the two countries—is that the security budget will be lower by 12 billion shekels starting next year. He noted that the Israeli military was not previously informed of the decision to halt U.S. security aid, even though planning for next year’s budget is underway.

For his part, Segev Blutsik, an economic analyst for the newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, believed that the cessation of U.S. military aid at the beginning of next year “will be overwhelming proof that it is forbidden for Benjamin Netanyahu to assume the premiership again.”

He added that Trump’s decision was not driven by economic motives, since the condition of the aid is that Israel must purchase weapons and military products made only in the United States. Rather, “he was motivated by the growing hostility toward the current Israeli government in general, and toward Netanyahu in particular, within American public opinion, across the left, right, and center.”

Blaustruck considered that “halting military aid is not a catastrophe, but it will place a heavy burden on Israel’s new government. By 2027, there will be an annual deficit of approximately 15 billion shekels, which will necessarily have to be offset through taxes and other cuts in civilian spending on welfare, health, education, infrastructure, and other areas.”

He added that “because we will now have to pay from the state treasury for military imports from the United States, which have been free so far, Israel’s current account surplus will disappear, and it may even turn into a financial deficit. This will not affect only the dollar exchange rate; all of us will be impacted.”

Blaustruck believed that “Israel is a highly successful economy and will cope with the halt in aid effectively and without crisis. I believe that after the congressional election day, Trump’s announcement will be softened, and we will actually see a phased reduction in aid over a prolonged period.”