Lebanon... Eyes on US Ballot Boxes, Heart on Ammo Boxes in the Region

From the ballot boxes in the United States to the diplomatic correspondence channels on the Iran front, and through ammunition stockpiles, including the “forbidden” ones, which have become ready and are being brandished in the pre-confrontation “psychological warfare” should the final clash become inevitable... a triangle has preoccupied the world, with Lebanon appearing among the most closely monitored regarding the dynamics within which it will once again help shape the region’s geopolitical contours, whether through “hammer-in-the-pocket” talks with Tehran or through a patchwork approach that is feared will not rise above the noise unless the gap, filled with complexities that are a mix of mutual conditions, lack of trust, and the glare of strike scenarios under the cover of “camouflage” diplomacy, is bridged.

As the “Land of the Free” was preoccupied with the question of “who will ring the victory bells” on the big election day, during which President Donald Trump and the Republican Party mobilized their voters in an attempt to thwart expectations and keep the “elephant” in at least one chamber of Congress (the Senate), and perhaps even the House of Representatives, echoes of the difficult hours being experienced by negotiations on the Iran front reached Beirut. Indications emerged in the evening that these negotiations were still in a circle of stagnation, feared to deepen if the US President exits the electoral race wounded by injuries that would dictate the last two years of his term.

With the vanguard of the Republican “tsunami” of voter turnout following a slowdown in the early voting phase, amid anticipatory simulations of what any defeat for Trump in both chambers would mean in terms of making the Middle East hostage to two highly dangerous transitional phases—the first having begun in Israel with the Knesset elections, and the second in the United States, where midterm election results will not take effect until January 3—it was not incidental that Lebanon returned to the forefront of one of the entrenched complexities in the Washington-Tehran negotiation process mediated by intermediaries. This was underscored by the Iranian Foreign Ministry’s confirmation that “ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, is a fundamental condition for any agreement.”

Although this position was not surprising to Lebanon, which had previously countered Tehran’s insistence on linking its front to the Islamabad negotiations, considering its aim to make Lebanon a card in its hand, political circles saw that repeating this stance at a moment when the diplomatic track with Washington is approaching a “black or white” point reflects, on the one hand, Iran’s determination to gather its forces in anticipation of all possibilities on its front, and, on the other hand, a deliberate effort to undermine the direct negotiations that began between Beirut and Tel Aviv under US auspices (last April) by attempting to “pull the rug out” from under the Lebanese state and make the “Hezbollah” file and its weapons a tool to achieve as much “counterweight” as possible at the table, which is watched by the “eyes and noses” of warplanes, and thus to retain wider margins for maneuver and... exchange.

Political circles were also struck by the phone call held on Monday evening between Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, given Qatar’s pivotal role in mediating between Washington and Tehran.

The Qatari Foreign Ministry announced in a statement that the call included “a presentation of cooperation relations and ways to support, enhance, and strengthen them, as well as the latest regional developments, particularly the diplomatic efforts made and joint coordination to de-escalate tensions and enhance security and stability in the region.”

Lebanese media reported that the medical unit at the Central Bank of Lebanon issued a directive to bank employees and beneficiaries of its medical coverage, suspending all medical approvals and coverage at the “Al-Rasoul Al-A’zam” Hospital and the Lebanese Medical Center (LMC), which are linked to Hezbollah.

LBCI channel quoted sources at the central bank stating that it periodically issues circulars and alerts to its employees regarding entities and individuals listed on international sanctions lists, and that this measure “is part of the routine administrative and supervisory practices adopted by the bank, and does not carry any political implications or other considerations of any kind.”

It added: “The Central Bank of Lebanon does not take such considerations into account in its dealings with its employees; rather, it strictly complies with the laws and prohibitions that must be observed by entities under its supervision, and ensures their strict application to its employees, based on the principle that the bank is obliged to respect the rules it imposes on others, without any exception or discrimination.”