Hezbollah Prepares to Face Iran in Its War... Israel Threatens Occupation up to Sidon and Naval Blockade

As the countdown neared its end in the final five minutes of efforts to achieve a breakthrough that could spare the region from igniting on the Iran front and from its recent escalation, Lebanon appeared to be sitting on the sidelines, watching as Tel Aviv and Tehran jointly arranged their “fiery battlefield” and prepared for a major war, should it break out.

While the United States (alongside Israel) was putting the finishing touches on a plan to strike Iran, initially scheduled for after November 3—following the midterm elections on Tuesday—in the event that diplomatic efforts failed to persuade Tehran to provide President Donald Trump with sufficient justification to back down from an operation that lacked only the pressure on the “detonation button,” early fragments of the potential war began striking Lebanon, which is caught between the jaws of a vice:

- First, the Lebanese state’s inability to control its own trajectory toward the “muzzle of the gun” held by Hezbollah, acting on behalf of Tehran, which has signaled its readiness to confront Iran in a “war of survival.”

- Second, the state’s lack of control over the tools to extinguish the southern front through negotiations sponsored by Washington, because the key to a diplomatic solution—disarming Hezbollah—does not lie in its hands. It has crafted a self-defeating equation to address this file, centered on restricting weapons while rejecting any implementation that would lead to internal confrontation.

After Tehran issued what resembled a “daily order,” through its leader Mojtaba Khamenei, to all its affiliates to prepare to activate “unity of fronts” as soon as its front ignites, alarming indicators emerged from Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with Trump on Saturday. These indicators concern what awaits Lebanon once Hezbollah answers Iran’s call to support it and the “Axis” in a third war (following October 2023 and March 2026), amid the leak of a dramatic scenario involving an expansionist occupation reaching Sidon and a naval blockade on the ports of Beirut and Tripoli.

In this context, the newspaper Ma’ariv quoted Israeli officials as saying that Iran would attempt to unify fronts if attacked, and that Tel Aviv “takes very seriously the possibility of Hezbollah’s participation in fighting against it, and is prepared in this case to use extremely heavy firepower.”

In a simulation of what it termed a “plan to occupy Tyre, Sidon, and Nabatieh and impose a naval blockade,” Ma’ariv wrote, “The Israeli Navy is also preparing to play a major role in any such confrontation. Planning starts from the recognition that the Air Force will be occupied with operations against Iran, which pushes the army to rely on naval power to carry out additional preliminary bombing operations and strikes deep into Lebanese territory.”

It added, “Lebanese coastal cities, particularly Tyre and Sidon, are expected to be among the main targets of the attacks. According to the report, the Israeli army intends to occupy them, along with the city of Nabatieh, if Hezbollah attempts to challenge the Israeli army. The Israeli Navy is also preparing to concentrate heavy fire on Beirut’s southern suburbs, and even to impose a naval blockade on the port of Beirut and the port of Tripoli in northern Lebanon.”

This report, considered a translation of what Defense Minister Israel Katz had threatened a few weeks ago when he hinted at reaching the Litani River, bombing the southern suburbs, and displacing about one million Shia inside Lebanon, deepened fears that Beirut—amid the choice between external and internal “fires”—is relying entirely on a military dynamic over which it has zero control, while the direct diplomatic track between it and Tel Aviv is governed by “obvious sterility” as long as negotiations are with an entity that is neither willing nor able to resolve the Hezbollah weapons file in a way that would defuse a new confrontation on the Lebanese front.

Concerns were further heightened by reports from Al-Jadeed TV’s correspondent in the U.S. capital, who stated that “information from Washington confirms that the Israeli media report regarding a plan to impose a blockade on Lebanon and advance into new areas is accurate and has reached the U.S. administration. However, the implementation of these scenarios remains tied to the course of negotiations. All options remain on the table, and negotiations hold the final say.”

From this perspective, Beirut appeared “on edge,” closely monitoring the delicate diplomatic “stock market” and the “hourglass” timed to coincide with the U.S. election day on Tuesday, when tens of millions of voters are expected to cast their ballots, adding to the 53 million who voted early (setting a record). The unfolding of results is being viewed as a “countdown” to war on the Iran front—unless diplomacy succeeds—regardless of whether Republicans or Democrats win, as Trump is now expected to act without restraint.

In this context, a former Mossad official revealed that Israel possesses intelligence and operational capabilities enabling it to carry out a surprise operation against senior leaders of the Iranian regime, similar to the pager explosions that targeted Hezbollah.

Channel 14 quoted Oded Eylon, former deputy head of the Global Operations Department at the intelligence agency, stating that four military and security leaders effectively control Iran, while the political leadership serves merely as a facade.

In an interview with the New York Post, he said that carrying out an operation against key Iranian leaders, akin to the pager attacks carried out by Hezbollah operatives, remains one of the options under consideration.