Lebanon Plays with 'Daisy' Amid Thorns of Fronts and Ballot Boxes

“War in the region? No war,” “Will Hezbollah engage or abstain?” “Benjamin Netanyahu or Gadi Eizenkot?” These three parallel questions formed the core of the “Daisy Chain” game that shaped the Lebanese landscape on Israel’s election day, highlighting the serious difficulty of penetrating the solid wall of complexities obstructing the path to understandings that could keep the specter of a “Great War” away from the region.

As the Houthis’ resumption of their brazen attacks on Saudi Arabia served as a “gunshot” to the de-escalation efforts undertaken by the “Mecca Alliance”—whose three parties visited Tehran on Monday—and as an indicator of the belief that a “negotiations under fire” track could be established, the echo of every electoral voice in Israel seemed to reverberate in Lebanon. Local television stations in Lebanon opened their screens to the political “clash” in the “enemy’s land” as never before.

Around the clock, Lebanese followed the unprecedented “flood” of voting, the highest turnout in more than half a century. They were immersed in analyzing voting mechanisms, the laws governing them, vote counting, and the announcement of results, as well as the constitutional process governing “the day after.” They wondered whether Tel Aviv would replicate the prolonged caretaker phase that Lebanon “specializes in,” and, most importantly, whether Netanyahu would pay the price for his performance before and after the “Al-Aqsa Flood,” and whether the precedent of dragging Israel into “years-long wars” (three consecutive years so far)—a pattern it had not previously practiced, having only engaged in “days-long wars”—would hold.

Lebanese did not find comfort in a “better scenario” for the outcomes of the Knesset elections, as it became apparent that all paths leading to the ballot boxes pointed to the same Israeli “tightrope” regarding Hezbollah and the security of the Jewish state, whether Netanyahu, Eizenkot, or others held the rope. Reports indicated that the differences between the current prime minister and his closest rival lay only in the depth of the security zone they wished to maintain in southern Lebanon, and in the relative flexibility each might have regarding the expansion of “experimental zones” regulating the tripartite framework agreement produced by direct Lebanese-Israeli negotiations under US sponsorship.

The most alarming aspect was the “loser loses” equation, which Lebanon fears it may face if Netanyahu neither wins nor loses the election. There is a belief that if he snatches “victory” from the ballot boxes, it will serve as a new mandate for escalation in the “language of fire” against Hezbollah and Iran. Conversely, an “October 2026 setback” would render him a “wounded lion,” seeking through the battlefield and its incitement to lure in a war government. He would exploit caretaker powers that do not bind his hands militarily, attempting to complete the endless “bank of objectives” across the seven fronts.

As Israel’s ballot boxes will hand over the “steering wheel” to US ballot boxes on Tuesday in an election no less influential in its impact on the regional reality and Lebanon, it was not coincidental that Tel Aviv signaled how it would shape the front with Hezbollah in the coming days, during the transitional phase it is entering. The Israeli army proceeded with bombing, burning, and incineration operations in the security zone, culminating in targeting the drone-operated area of Jarmaq in the Jezzine district. This served as an indicator that military pressure on the Lebanese state would continue, urging it to take further actions regarding the file of withdrawing Hezbollah’s weapons.

Not least significant was what the Al-Jadeed channel reported from Washington, citing information indicating increasing American firmness regarding regional security risks, including those in Lebanon, amid disappointment with the performance of the government and the March 8 Alliance, due to what is perceived in the US capital as a failure to implement Hezbollah’s disarmament plan and to refer the case of its explosives shipment to the judicial authorities.

According to this information, and in the context of potential US pressure on Lebanon, there are possibilities of imposing a new package of sanctions that could target political officials accused of obstructing Hezbollah’s disarmament, judges or officials in connection with the case of Lebanese ambassador Nada Hammad Muawad (a complaint was filed against her with the military court following alleged continued contact with the Israeli ambassador to Washington after her son was involved in a car-ramming incident in the West Bank), as well as networks involved in smuggling money and explosives and their commercial fronts, in addition to security officials.

Meanwhile, in light of interactions regarding what Lebanese security sources told Reuters—that Hezbollah has spent the past three months preparing for the possibility of renewed confrontations with Israel after receiving hundreds of millions of dollars from Iran to rebuild its military capabilities, and that it is focusing on securing explosives and manufacturing drones amid anticipation of renewed confrontation between the United States and Iran, and the potential return of war to the Lebanese front—Lebanese President Joseph Aoun informed Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs and Defence Helen McEntee that “Beirut wishes for UNIFIL to complete its operational mission in the south during the coming year, which is designated for its withdrawal under a UN Security Council resolution, given the importance of its presence in the south to monitor developments on the one hand, and to assist the Lebanese Army when it deploys up to the international southern border after Israel’s withdrawal.”

Aoun noted that “in the event of non-compliance with the Lebanese request to extend UNIFIL’s mandate, Lebanon welcomes the participation of any European force according to a formula agreed upon with the European Union or with the relevant countries in cooperation with the United Nations,” adding that “Israel has not complied with the agreement reached in Washington negotiations and continues its attacks on southern villages and towns,” clarifying that “communications conducted by Lebanon with the United States, as guarantor of the agreement, to put an end to these attacks, have yielded no results; indeed, Israel is erecting obstacles to the implementation of the agreement, further complicating matters.”

In a related development, Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Raje expressed during his meeting with the Irish Defence Minister his “fear of a new war that Hezbollah is preparing for at Iran’s request,” recalling the “necessity of Israel’s withdrawal and cessation of its attacks,” and pointing to “government decisions regarding the monopoly on arms and the ban on Hezbollah’s military and security activities.”