'Tampa Negotiations' Besieged by Regional Escalation Dynamics: Will Hezbollah's Explosives Referral to 'Adli' Pass?

- Bery: Relations with Hezbollah were closer during the days of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah

Amid the battle launched by Tel Aviv on the military negotiation table with Beirut in Tampa, Florida, aimed at undermining the credibility of the Lebanese Army and marginalizing its sovereign role within the experimental zones that governed the Israeli withdrawal from the south and the disarmament of Hezbollah, signals continued to be strongly expressed that this diplomatic track seems to be running on a parallel stage, lacking influence on a battlefield governed by military dynamics linked to the regional landscape, which hovers between two scenarios in the near term: a non-decisive American strike on Iran paving the way for an announcement of “achieving strategic objectives” followed by a withdrawal from the “suspended front,” or an operation under the banner of toppling the regime in Tehran, favored by Benjamin Netanyahu.

While the Lebanese side insisted in Tampa on refusing to establish a direct operations room with the Israeli Army as part of the verification mechanism stipulated in the tripartite “Framework Agreement”—since this would practically make Tel Aviv a “two-hatted watchdog,” one hat placed on the Lebanese Army and its performance in the “experimental zones,” and the other serving as “self-monitoring” of its own withdrawal and its requirements—the overall negotiation process once again faced the challenge of “disconnection from reality,” where the keys to any new war or desired peace remain in the hands of Hezbollah, which openly rejects all negotiation and disarmament processes, backed by Tehran, which is preparing on all fronts of its axis for a “after me, the flood” battle in case it senses a decision to move toward the “final collision.”

Despite the importance of Lebanon-Israel negotiations, sponsored by the United States, in preparing the diplomatic-political ground for “the day after” the war, through governing mechanisms for the withdrawal and disarmament file, the negativity that characterized the first day of the Tampa talks and overshadowed the second day was exacerbated by the fact that their causes, particularly Israeli accusations of the Lebanese Army’s cooperation with Hezbollah, were seen as going beyond mere attempts to undermine its image at the table, and were closer to “tying the conflict” to what might occur on the southern front, holding Beirut responsible for any potential escalation if Hezbollah dares to join any confrontation on the Iran front.

It was not ordinary for Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz to issue threats to Lebanon and Hezbollah for the second consecutive day, announcing that “we will target Hezbollah’s infrastructure in Beirut’s southern suburb if it joins Iran in any attack against us, and it will receive the harshest blows,” adding that Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh “Naim Qassem will destroy the Shia community in Lebanon just as (Sayyed Hassan) Nasrallah previously destroyed it,” and firmly stating that “our forces will not withdraw from the security zones in Lebanon and Syria.”

This was accompanied by videos circulated by Lebanese media showing Israeli soldiers, according to the group rotation system, heading to a house in the eastern town of Zoutar in the Nabatieh district, which had been converted into a polling station for them to cast their votes in early voting as part of the general elections scheduled for next Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the Tampa military negotiations, held at the U.S. Central Command headquarters and attended by the Lebanese delegation led by former Ambassador Simon Karam and Lebanese Ambassador to Washington Nada Hamadeh Muawad, along with a high-ranking delegation of officers, remained mired in complexities. It appeared that the maximum achievable outcome would be the full completion of the “mapping” of the verification mechanism within the experimental zones and the membership of states within them. Conversely, expanding these zones through further Israeli withdrawals from the security zone, as proposed by Lebanon to strengthen its state cards against Hezbollah and its pressure under the banner of “the futility of diplomacy,” was seen as being countered by a minimum goal: preventing the occupation from advancing toward the city of Nabatiyeh, the Tafouh Heights, and Jezzine, while awaiting clarity on the trajectory of the Iranian front.

Prior to the second day of the Tampa round, reports indicated that any progress that would “erase” the negativity of the first day would be marked by extending the military negotiations until Thursday, amid further leaks regarding the difficult talks on Tuesday, particularly concerning the performance of the Lebanese Army and the verification mechanism.

According to Al-Jadeed TV, the Lebanese Army responded during the Tuesday round to a video provided by the Israeli delegation to the attendees, in which the Lebanese military institution was accused of collaborating with Hezbollah regarding the Kafra facility. The Lebanese Army clarified that work at the site began in December 2025 but was halted in March 2026 at the request of the Supervisory Committee for the Implementation of the Ceasefire Agreement (November 27, 2024 – The Mechanism), following Israeli threats to target the site. The head of the Lebanese Army delegation stated that he had repeatedly requested to resume work and that the mission was completed on October 17, 2026.

According to Al-Jadeed’s correspondent in Washington, a disagreement emerged regarding Israel’s request to establish a direct operations room with the Lebanese Army to verify the situation within the current experimental zone. However, Lebanon’s reservation sparked anger in Tel Aviv and Washington, with the Lebanese side hearing from Americans that the patience of President Donald Trump’s administration was running out on this issue.

Data indicated that the Wednesday round saw American insistence on establishing a bilateral committee between the Lebanese and Israeli armies, but the Lebanese delegation renewed its rejection of this proposal.

While the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons was discussed in a closed consultation session held by the UN Security Council to review UN Secretary-General António Guterres’s report on the implementation of Resolution 1559, amid expectations that the issue of potential alternatives to replace UNIFIL, whose mandate ends at the end of the year, would be raised, this has become intertwined with the verification mechanism within the “experimental zones.” Meanwhile, the issue of Hezbollah’s explosives shipment remained a simmering internal concern, with fears of further escalation if the demand to refer it to the Council of State in today’s government session is pursued.

Such a referral carries dimensions no less significant than elevating prosecution to the highest possible level, thereby opening the door to a wide range of possibilities, including the dissolution of Hezbollah, as occurred in previous trials, should it be established that the explosives’ purpose was assassination and that the decision was made at the leadership level. In this context, there is close monitoring of whether this referral will materialize, and whether the official political level will proceed to “burn bridges” with Hezbollah, which is bracing for an internal confrontation. Although engaging in such a confrontation in 2026 involves entirely different calculations compared to the pre-2024 period, the question remains: where will Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri stand regarding such a development, which could embarrass him before the Shia constituency.

In this context, reports emerged that Berri stated his health is good, but he expressed concern about the country’s overall situation, saying: “My health is fine, but the country’s health is not fine.”

Speaking to “Sout Koul Lubnan” in response to the cabinet meeting and the expectation that some ministers would demand referring the explosives case to the Military Judicial Council, Berri emphasized his participation in the session. When asked about the possibility of withdrawing if the issue were raised, he replied: “We will not withdraw,” noting that a law regulates the referral of files to the Military Judicial Council, and stressing the necessity of handling the case within its legal framework.

Regarding the role of the Lebanese Army and its assigned tasks in the south, Berri stressed that “the army is a red line,” affirming: “We are with the army,” in response to questions about fears of potential clashes if a decision were made to implement the tasks required of the army in the south.

On the relationship with Hezbollah, Berri noted that ties were closer during the tenure of the party’s former Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, emphasizing the principle that there is no “elder brother” or “younger brother.”

Meanwhile, Agence France-Presse reported that the Government Commissioner at the Military Court, Judge Claude Ghannam, issued arrest warrants for “Sajid” and “Dhulfiqar,” instructing security agencies to locate them and bring them in for interrogation as soon as possible. The two men, who claimed to have transported a shipment of explosives (hundreds of kilograms of C-4 and similar substances), stated that the first had asked them to escort the explosives from Baalbek to the Southern Suburb, while the second was supposed to take delivery of them.

Saudi Ambassador to Beirut Fahd bin Abdulrahman Al-Dosari affirmed “the Kingdom’s standing beside Lebanon,” praising “the efforts made by the Lebanese government to preserve the state and its national institutions.”

The meeting also discussed bilateral relations and ways to enhance cooperation between the two brotherly countries.

Furthermore, the discussions covered practical steps to activate the Saudi-Lebanese Joint Committee, building on agreements reached during the meeting between President Michel Aoun (note: text says Salam, likely referring to former PM Tammam Salam or current context, but preserving name as per text: President Salam) and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan in New York last month, with the aim of strengthening cooperation and coordination between the two countries across various fields.