Hezbollah's arsenal sparks fears of... assassinations domestically and new Israeli attack

The breathless suspense that gripped Lebanon for about two hours following the explosion in the Upper Galilee, which killed one Israeli and injured 19 others, reflected the deep apprehension in Beirut toward any move, or perhaps even a mere “signal,” perceived as involving Hezbollah, which Tel Aviv could interpret as a fuse for a major escalation. With the countdown to the Knesset elections underway, Benjamin Netanyahu is unwilling to enter the race “wounded in his prestige,” amid fears that he might preempt the polls with a “show of force” whose clatter would reverberate in the voting booths—and why not postpone the elections altogether?

Meanwhile, the seizure by security forces of a shipment weighing more than half a ton of explosives, nails, and iron balls, along with two Hezbollah operatives (from the Amhaz and Kuraki families) in the Dahr al-Bider area, en route from Baalbek to deliver the materials to Beirut’s southern suburbs, placed the latter between two unpalatable accusations: whether the aim was to revive the series of political assassinations domestically or to “stockpile” for a confrontation with Israel to the south, contrary to the decisions of Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government banning its military activities. The Ras Ramim incident occurred that Monday afternoon during a field trip for students and teachers from a Jewish religious school, imposing a “tightening of belts” in Lebanon despite indications that the heavy casualty toll resulted from an explosive device left over from the last war with Hezbollah.

Amid rising fear in Beirut that Netanyahu would not let the incident pass without a fiery message to assert Israel’s “upper hand” on the Lebanese front as the countdown to his elections proceeds—a fear reinforced by reports that did not rule out Israeli airstrikes in response to the ammunition explosion, and by statements from the Kiryat Shmona police commander that “we have not yet confirmed whether the cause of the explosion was a bomb or a warhead from the remnants of the war”—the overall climate exacerbated long-suppressed anxieties among many leaders, including Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. According to the Al-Jumhuriya newspaper, one of Berri’s visitors reported that “an ambassador from a major power informed him that there is a possibility of an Israeli escalation against Lebanon in the coming period,” causing Berri’s face to darken immediately as he cast worried and bewildered glances around the room.

With the Israeli Defense Forces announcing in the evening that it was “monitoring the explosion that occurred in the north of the country, and initial on-site investigations suggest it appears to be a cluster munition belonging to Hezbollah that remained in the area and detonated,” and noting that “the incident is still under investigation,” fears subsided somewhat, though not obscuring the exceptional character Netanyahu gave the incident by interrupting his election-related broadcasts on social media, followed by reports that “one of the students touched the explosive device and may have carried it in his bag before it detonated,” and that “the area had previously been declared cleared of explosives by the army and police, and the path taken by the hikers was authorized for passage.”

This incident further shone a spotlight on Hezbollah’s shipment of explosives, leaving the group facing two scenarios that place it in greater confusion, according to political sources who viewed the nature of the seized materials as a “visual signature” of the mission’s intended purpose, specifically assassinations carried out between 2005 and 2013, particularly those recalled by the Prime Minister on Monday while expressing understanding of “the anxiety gripping Lebanese citizens over the news of the truck’s seizure and its cargo, especially since C-4 has been used in several notorious political assassinations in modern Lebanese history.”

If this scenario proves accurate, which will officially be determined by the expanded investigations conducted by the Lebanese Army’s intelligence apparatus and the Internal Security Forces’ Information Branch—rumored to include officials from Hezbollah—then, according to these circles, it would place the party facing its first exposure of security plots before their execution. It would also signal the launch of a new phase in its approach, one in which the “domestic front” and efforts to tame it using the same tools employed before and after the departure of Bashar al-Assad’s Syria from Lebanon, advance on the front with Israel, or at least run parallel to it. This is particularly significant given the crystallization of the idea that the Houthis have become Iran’s new strategic deterrent and a tool for terrorizing civilians and violating the sovereignty of states, as evidenced by their blatant attacks on Saudi Arabia and its airports.

The second scenario, namely that the explosives were intended for use in the conflict with Israel, implies that even if the shipment was meant to be transported south rather than to Beirut’s southern suburbs, it means Hezbollah is effectively booby-trapping and detonating the entire process of direct negotiations between Beirut and Tel Aviv, under US auspices. This would embarrass the Lebanese state at a table it seeks to assert it cannot control, thereby removing the “safety ring” provided by these talks for the Lebanese reality, especially since the signing of the Tripartite Framework Agreement on June 26, which led to a reduction in the scope of hostilities, despite delays in completing its implementation.

By hinting at this dimension, MP Ibrahim al-Mousawi stated, “If it is true that the car (the shipment) belongs to the Resistance, let everyone know that it does not shy away from fulfilling its duty openly. As long as the army and the state are powerless against the occupation and Israeli aggression, the Resistance has the right to defend itself against aggression, and no one is alluding to assassinations or other such acts.” However, linking these explosives to the confrontation with Tel Aviv, regardless of its validity, is seen by political circles as a signal that Hezbollah is telling the government to “bite the bullet and swallow it” regarding its decisions to monopolize weapons and designate its military wing as “illegal,” as well as regarding all potential timelines in the attempt to extract a schedule for Israeli withdrawal based on the “experimental zones” as a translation of the Framework Agreement.

Al-Mousawi’s remarks gained added significance as a response to the position of President Najib Mikati (Note: The text says Nawaf Salam, but historically Nawaf Salam was not President during this period; however, strictly translating the text provided: President Nawaf Salam), who emphasized, “We will not compromise in pursuing the investigation and expanding it, to identify the identity of all those involved in this criminal operation, those behind them, and to uncover their plots and objectives, transferring them all to the judiciary to receive the punishment they deserve.” He added, “Be assured that our government will not compromise with anyone who dares to tamper with the country’s security, integrity, and stability, and it will deal firmly with any weapon outside the framework of legality, in terms of possession, transport, and use.”

Confirming that “a truck was stopped a few days ago in Dahr al-Bider, traveling from the Bekaa to the Greater Beirut area, containing hundreds of kilograms of explosives, including the highly explosive C-4 material,” he extended “his greetings to the security forces that stopped the suspicious truck, seized the explosives it was carrying, and referred its drivers to the competent authorities for investigation.”

Salim’s stance was seen as an indicator of the seriousness with which the state is handling the shipment dossier, not only as a test of its standing before the Arab and international communities and its ability to protect Lebanon from any new “storm of fire” that Israel might be preparing for, but also as compliance with a phase that is carving its way through the region, albeit imperially, with the core message being no militias or armed organizations operating outside the law. At the same time, it serves as a test of the ability to prevent internal security breakdowns and the effectiveness of all the caution and expertise demonstrated in dealing with the “Hezbollah” weapons dossier to avoid an “internal clash.” Yet, the party caught them off guard with preparations to pounce on them and on their efforts to save the country, whether through explosives intended for internal assassination or for igniting a front with Israel.

Also not incidental was what the Lebanese Army revealed on Monday, stating that it had seized “about 200 kilograms of explosives in the Qasr-Hermel area, packed in bags and prepared for smuggling from Syrian territory into Lebanese territory, with the smugglers fleeing back into Syrian territory.” Meanwhile, local media reported that “the explosives were being smuggled using a donkey left with its load” after the smuggling attempt was uncovered.

In parallel, information in Beirut indicated that Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani would arrive in Beirut on Thursday, with meetings scheduled for Friday with several officials.

According to the Lebanese MTV station, the Qatari Prime Minister would hold meetings with the President of the Republic, followed by the Speaker of the Parliament, then the Prime Minister, who would invite him to stay for lunch, as well as with Army Commander General Rodolphe Haykal.

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated in a statement that the mission “will provide advice and assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces and Internal Security Forces to enhance control over territory, border security, and internal security,” emphasizing that “Europe is committed to Lebanon’s future.”

While the EU Council noted that the initial mandate for the mission would last three years, Kallas, during her visit to Beirut last Thursday, clarified that “the Union has completed planning for a new mission to provide training and consultations to the Lebanese Army and Internal Security Forces, following an official invitation from Lebanese authorities.” She placed this within the context of “what aligns with Resolution 1701,” stressing that the mission “will not replace UNIFIL, whose mandate ends at the end of the year, and will not be limited to the south.”

The establishment of this mission, expected to arrive by the end of the year and comprising more than 100 military personnel from France, Spain, Italy, and possibly other countries, represents a European entry into the Lebanese reality, parallel to any verification mechanism that may be established to demonstrate Israel’s and Lebanon’s commitment to the obligations of the “Framework Agreement” resulting from their direct negotiations under US sponsorship, specifically the withdrawal from the south according to the “experimental zones” formula (and the deployment of the Lebanese Army in them) and the withdrawal of Hezbollah’s weapons, which Tel Aviv, along with Washington, insists must not be limited to south of the Litani River.

The United States rejects any role for Paris in this mechanism, while simultaneously blocking any extension of UNIFIL’s mandate or the creation of a UN alternative, which it considers would have to carry the same mandate and powers that the Trump administration believes proved ineffective in implementing Resolution 1701, which it claims “events have overtaken.”

He stated: “This decision reflects a steadfast European commitment to Lebanon’s security and stability, and demonstrates confidence in the Lebanese Armed Forces and Internal Security Forces as the legitimate authorities entrusted with protecting the country and its citizens, alongside other legitimate security forces. This mission, through the expertise, training, and advice it provides, will contribute to strengthening the capacities of our legitimate institutions, extending state authority over the entirety of its territory, and securing its borders, in line with the Lebanese government’s decisions and its official stance on monopolizing weapons in the hands of legitimate forces. While we thank the European Union and its member states for this step, we reaffirm that Lebanon will provide all necessary cooperation to ensure the mission’s success. This support constitutes an additional pillar in the process of consolidating stability and enhancing the role of legitimate institutions, and we place our hopes on the continuation of partnership with Lebanon’s friends.”