Lebanon 'Under the Influence' of Explosives Shipment Laced with Assassination Shadows

Beirut has not yet shaken off the shadow cast by the dark cloud that descended upon it following the discovery of half a ton of TNT and C4 explosives, along with large quantities of nails and metal balls, being transported by two Hezbollah operatives—one of whom was the son of a senior official—from the Bekaa Valley to Beirut’s southern suburbs. This highly dangerous security incident intersects with the country’s precarious position on the brink of a potential new war, amid the deadlock over the file of disarming Hezbollah and the region’s entry into an extremely sensitive phase characterized by the rolling fragmentation of the Iranian front, particularly through the Houthi attacks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

At a time when Lebanon is preoccupied with the military risks stemming from Hezbollah’s insistence on retaining its arsenal, its refusal to relinquish it, and its determination to keep “the land of cedars” on the “same boat” as Iran, the security dimension of the weapons file and Hezbollah’s status outside the state apparatus are coming to the fore. This signals a situation where the country is caught between two parallel, dangerous vices: the first linked to the desire to preserve Tehran’s “weight” in the “war of survival” it is waging, and the second aimed at preempting the impact of major regional transformations on the Lebanese reality by undermining the internal balance through the elimination of leaders who serve as a lever for “new balances,” thereby allowing the terror-inducing effect of assassinations to spread to others.

Thus, informed circles, which are hostile to Hezbollah, have interpreted the multiple dimensions of the explosives shipment seized by security forces at the beginning of the coming week, as well as similar shipments before and after it. Data converged, particularly regarding the confiscation of nails and metal balls alongside the explosives, indicating a security function related to assassinations, while the geography of their origin and the presumed delivery point ruled out any role linked to the front with Israel.

These circles expressed deep concern over the return of the specter of assassinations to the political scene, which witnessed no fewer than 15 assassination attempts and successful assassinations of figures and leaders from forces opposing the Assad (former) regime—including the late President Rafic Hariri—and from Hezbollah, between October 1, 2004, and December 2013. They consider that Hezbollah’s placement in the dock or its alleged complicity in these acts now has a judicial basis, following the Special Tribunal for Lebanon’s rulings in 2020 and 2022 convicting three Hezbollah members for the February 13, 2005, crime (the assassination of Hariri).

These circles further believe that despite the seizure of the shipment and the subsequent thwarting of any plot likely linked to it, the factor of assassination remains present on the political stage, even if it does not alter the pressing trajectory for disarming Hezbollah. This trajectory is supported by a group comprising the majority of political forces, along with the government of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun, all of whom provide leverage for this file and for direct negotiations with Israel under US sponsorship. These efforts have yielded the “Framework Agreement,” which Hezbollah strongly rejects, alongside its defiance of implementing decisions to restrict weapons to state control and to designate its military wing as illegal.

In the estimation of these circles, as the Iranian front moves closer to resolution—whether through a final settlement or explosion—fears rise of attempts to shatter the current internal balance, which is poised for further transformation at the expense of Hezbollah’s already eroding influence in light of the outcomes of the 2024 and 2026 wars. They view the marginalization of opposing forces “from the top” as a potential card to be played to undermine the post-ceasefire phase in the region and compensate for losses suffered, while “delaying” the advancement of its opponents domestically by disrupting their leadership structure and dispersing their forces.

The reaction of Hezbollah’s opponents to the case of half a ton of explosives, along with their nails and metal balls, reflected a deep apprehension that Lebanon’s reality could slip, with a single “press of a button,” into a phase of chaos, potentially inviting external interventions through a repeated game of “exchanges” between security and sovereignty. Among informed circles, there is a belief that the entire Lebanese authority faces a highly precise test of its prestige and its ability to pursue investigations to the end, uncovering all the circumstances and objectives of this case and holding all those responsible accountable, leading to the conclusion that what occurred “should elevate the priority of restricting weapons before it is too late.”

In Beirut, information revealed that the shipment, which was handed over by a senior Hezbollah figure known as “Sajjad,” was intended to be transported to the Southern Suburb and delivered to “Al-Zafar” before being intercepted at the Dahr al-Bider checkpoint. The MTV website reported that “the quantity of explosives found with the two Hezbollah operatives amounts to approximately 780 kilograms of explosive materials, distributed as follows: 216 kilograms of C-4 and 281 kilograms of Tetryl, a highly explosive chemical substance. The remaining quantity consists of nails and small containers intended to cause significant loss of life, meaning that if detonated, this amount would have caused considerable damage.”

As the military judiciary expanded its investigation into this file, voices demanding that “investigations continue until the entire leadership chain is dismantled, even if it requires including Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Naim Qassem,” rose higher. This was stated by Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces party, who described the incident as “the most dangerous in years.”

In an interview with the newspaper L’Orient-Le Jour, Geagea noted that “this incident necessitates the state adopting a firm stance to complete the process of restricting weapons in its own hands,” adding, “It is the most dangerous incident in years, especially since the seized explosives include C-4, which is typically used in assassination operations.”

He added: “There is another indicator that must be taken into account: the shipment was heading from the Bekaa to Beirut. If the goal had truly been to use these weapons against Israel, the vehicle could have taken another route to reach southern Lebanon. All these data points lead me to conclude that these weapons were most likely intended for use within Lebanon.”

He warned: “The military establishment announced, about two weeks ago, the seizure of 250 kilograms of explosives. Therefore, if the Dahr al-Bider file is closed by arresting only two individuals, it will be a genuine scandal. This time, we will not accept that the case ends with the arrest of two minor participants.”

Samy Gemayel, a member of parliament and head of the Kataeb Party, wrote on X: “In 2005, the explosives truck was not intercepted, and the result was the assassination of President Rafic Hariri. We will not ask about the intended use of explosives transported by Hezbollah operatives; the most likely outcome is a wave of assassinations, as occurred between 2004 and 2008. Delaying the implementation of decisions and the application of the law is what poses a threat to civil peace. The state must immediately begin dismantling Hezbollah’s military and security structure before we all pay the price for terrorism again.”

Deputy Lieutenant General Ashraf Rifi also stated that “if the statements of the detainees, as announced, confirming their affiliation with Hezbollah are verified, we are facing a serious security issue that requires the full exposure of the network behind this shipment, from its sources to the entities that ordered its transport and the purpose of delivering it to the Southern Suburb, as well as the prosecution of all those involved, from the perpetrators to the leaders whose involvement is proven by the investigation.” He added: “The gravity of this case is compounded by Lebanon’s record, burdened by assassination crimes involving explosives,” calling for “the eradication of the parallel military and security structure established by Hezbollah, the end of its illegal armed presence, the ban on its unlawful armed and organizational activities, and the prosecution of anyone proven to be involved in crimes or terrorist plots, up to the trial of all leaders and elements whose responsibility is established before the competent judiciary.”

Lebanon: We stand in solidarity with Saudi Arabia and support it in whatever measures it deems appropriate for its self-defense

Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati (Note: The text says Nawaf Salam, who served as PM from 2020-2021. I will use the name as written: Nawaf Salam) considered that “the renewed threats on Sunday by the Houthi group to target Saudi airports and airspace, following its attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh—which Lebanon condemned in the strongest terms—reveal their determination to continue threatening the security of the brotherly Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, an act that destabilizes the security and stability of the entire region.”

Salam said via the “X” platform: “My full solidarity with the people of the brotherly Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its leadership, and my deepest condolences to the families of the innocent victims who were killed, whose grief and pain I share. I also wish the injured a speedy recovery.”

He added: “I reiterate Lebanon’s complete solidarity with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its standing by its side in every measure it deems appropriate for its self-defense and the protection of its people, security, and sovereignty.”

The Lebanese Presidency stated in a bulletin that President Aoun “reiterated his condemnation of the attacks targeting the brotherly Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, its air facilities, and its vital installations, foremost among them King Khalid International Airport.”

Aoun expressed his country’s full solidarity with Saudi Arabia “in leadership and people,” affirming “Lebanon’s standing by its side in confronting anything that could impair its security, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and vital installations.”

He added that “the security of the Kingdom is an inseparable part of the security and stability of the region, and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states, along with refraining from targeting civilian and vital facilities, constitutes a fundamental pillar for preserving regional stability.”

The Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs also condemned in the strongest terms “the attack that targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Saturday, which resulted in the death of twelve civilians and injured more than 300 others.”

The ministry reiterated “its affirmation that targeting vital facilities and civilians constitutes a blatant violation of the principles of international law and the rules of international humanitarian law,” renewing “its firm rejection of any infringement on the sovereignty, security, and integrity of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, its expression of full solidarity with the Kingdom and its people, and its standing by its side in confronting any attack that threatens the security and safety of its citizens and residents on its territory.”