Lebanon Between the 'Carrot and the Stick' of US Policy... Complex Security and Diplomatic Tests
Relief and suspicion, interest and worries, anticipation and rapprochement... Contrasting atmospheres coexisted in Beirut as the United States implemented a “carrot and stick” policy, mirroring Lebanese realities and treating what Washington considers its “number one” file: dismantling the military and financial structure that grants Hezbollah “octopus-like” influence domestically and enables it to play “military” roles on behalf of Iran and in service of its expansion or “survival” agenda.
While anxiety dominated Beirut due to the lack of an official confirmation of the expected round of direct Lebanese-Israeli military negotiations, theoretically scheduled in Tampa, Florida, between the 20th and 22nd of the current month, amid ambiguous signals from U.S. Ambassador to Beirut Michael Young—who linked the confirmation of the date to a “condition” that must be met beforehand—Lebanon received a significant “gift” from President Donald Trump: the official lifting of restrictions on air travel between Lebanon and the United States. This paves the way for the resumption of direct flights in the future, after a continuous hiatus since 1985 and the hijacking of a TWA plane.
Although this decision removed the presidential basis for these restrictions, the actual resumption of flights remains contingent on a gradual process requiring months to complete operational approvals and establish a multi-layered U.S. verification mechanism to ensure the highest levels of security and safety at Rafic Hariri International Airport. Nevertheless, the timing of Trump’s move, which translated into practice the statement of intentions he announced during his meeting with President Joseph Aoun at the White House on July 21, and came days after Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, indicates that the United States is proceeding with an attempt to equip the Lebanese state with more tools to “market” the strength of diplomacy and its ability to achieve tangible results. Most importantly, it aims to provide “ground readiness” for comprehensive recovery on the “day after” closing the Lebanon front and concluding the file of Hezbollah’s weapons.
As (Friday) Tommy Pigott, spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, expressed this dimension by announcing that Washington is holding talks with its partners in the Gulf and Europe to secure billions of dollars for reconstruction, noting that providing these funds depends largely on disarmament, this “conditional” embrace from Washington runs parallel to the “stick” it wields regarding the file of Hezbollah’s arsenal and its status outside legality. This is based on information available from the United States in recent days about a hardening stance regarding the expectation of translating the Lebanese state’s commitments concerning this file, and hints at sanctions “on the way” from the U.S. Treasury related to anything that enables Hezbollah militarily, financially, and socially.
The decision to lift air travel restrictions to Lebanon, described as a “permanent visa” for Washington’s return to Lebanon and ongoing patronage of its reality, did not obscure the high anticipation surrounding the presumed military negotiation round in Tampa. There is a belief that the increasing “rapprochement” displayed by the U.S. President toward Beirut deepens the responsibility on President Aoun and the Mikati government to seize this unprecedented opportunity, in which the United States grants this level of care to the small country. Amidst this, it is considered that Lebanese officials must ensure that the high U.S. interest in the Lebanese file does not become an additional “burden,” by activating decisions to monopolize weapons within the state and avoiding any ambiguity in positions and approaches.
These sources believe that the US ambassador’s comments regarding the lack of confirmation on the date for the Tampa round, and the existence of a condition still being worked on, signal that Washington is translating its stance into “actions, not words.” There is a prevailing belief that the breakthrough point lies in establishing synchronization between two parallel timelines: the Israeli withdrawal from the “Security Zone” and the withdrawal of Hezbollah’s weapons from all Lebanese territory, with an agreement on a multinational verification mechanism. There is also fear that any new negotiating meeting that yields no results and remains trapped in a vicious cycle regarding the expansion of “experimental zones” and the ambiguity surrounding weapons outside the Litani River would constitute a negative signal, undermining the trilateral framework agreement signed between Beirut, Tel Aviv, and Washington on June 26.
Distrust prevails in Lebanon, where President Joseph Aoun, speaking ambiguously via Hezbollah’s channel, stated that the requirement is “sacrifice for Lebanon, not of Lebanon.” There are concerns that Israel might use any postponement of the Tampa round (until after the Knesset elections and the US midterm elections) as an opportunity for further military incursions. This fear is heightened by a dangerous indicator: the resumption of airstrikes in the Bekaa region after a long hiatus. On Friday, a drone targeted a Jeep in the town of Houch Sayed Ali in Hermel, near the Lebanese-Syrian border, firing a missile that missed its target. The Ministry of Health announced that the attack injured six people, including five Syrians (two of whom were women) and one Lebanese national.
It is equally significant that Israel carried out a new airstrike on the town of Talousa (in the Marjayoun district), amid fears that the intensive operations in border villages south of the Litani River (such as Talousa, Hula, and Bani Hayan) may be linked to potential movements toward areas north of the river (such as the Apple Region and Mount Rihane). This would occur after securing the valleys and natural passages (such as the nearby Wadi al-Salouqi) that connect the Lebanese interior to the frontline border, thereby paving the way to “protect the rear” of forces advancing deeper if the zero hour is set for dealing with more profound fronts.
Official Lebanon received with great relief the signing of Presidential Decision No. 2026-25 by Donald Trump, dated September 30, 2026, and published in the Federal Register on October 5. This decision fully abolished US restrictions imposed for decades on flights to and from Lebanon, which were issued under decisions from 1985, 1992, 1998, and 2007.
Trump considered these restrictions no longer necessary to protect aircraft bound for or departing from Lebanon from unlawful seizure, directing the Secretary of Transportation to implement the decision immediately and cancel any regulations or orders conflicting with it.
President Joseph Aoun stated that “this decision is an indicator of confidence in the measures taken by the Lebanese state to ensure the safety of civil aviation and protect air transport movements to and from Beirut, and to enhance the security of flights connecting Lebanon with countries around the world.” He thanked President Trump for his decision and the executive measures that would follow, noting Trump’s responsiveness during their meeting at the White House to his request to lift restrictions on air transport between Lebanon and the United States, and his instruction at the time to US officials to restore air traffic between the two countries, coupled with an immediate statement to US airlines to resume flights to Beirut. Aoun also thanked Secretary Rubio for his persistent follow-up on this file and all those who worked to achieve it.
He emphasized that “Lebanon attaches the utmost importance to the safety of civil aviation, the security of Rafic Hariri International Airport, and air navigation, and continues to take necessary measures in accordance with accepted international standards, thereby safeguarding the safety of passengers and enhancing confidence in Lebanon and its institutions.” He expressed his appreciation for this step and hoped it would contribute to strengthening air transport and facilitating communication between Lebanon and the world, serving as a gateway for further cooperation between Lebanon and the United States in various fields.
It is well known that U.S. travel restrictions between Lebanon and the United States were imposed in the wake of the TWA Flight 847 hijacking, an event that left a deep scar on the American memory as one of the most notorious and worst aircraft hijackings, lasting 17 days and carried out by Hezbollah under the leadership of Imad Mughniyeh. The flight, which was bound from Athens to Rome on June 14, 1985, was carrying 153 passengers and crew members. It was taken to Beirut and then to Algiers twice (returning to Beirut). During the first stop in the Lebanese capital, the hijackers severely beat U.S. Navy diver Robert Stethem, shot him, killed him, and threw his body onto the airport runway in a scene that shocked the United States.
At the same time, this multi-dimensional scene coincided with a highly serious security development: the announcement on Monday last week of the seizure of half a ton of explosives in “Van,” which was stopped at an Internal Security Forces checkpoint in Dahr el-Bider (in the Bekaa). Two individuals were arrested, with intelligence indicating they belong to Hezbollah: “A-Sh-K” and “H-A-A.”
A judicial source and another security source clarified that the seized explosives consisted of 250 kilograms of TNT and an equivalent amount of highly explosive C4. They noted that the Internal Security Forces handed the detained Hezbollah members over to the Lebanese Army’s Military Police, and that the Government Commissioner before the Military Court, Judge Claude Ghanem, will expand the investigations.
While media reports revealed that the shipment seized on Monday was preceded by an attempt to smuggle a matching quantity and type across the border with Syria, and followed on Friday by the thwarting of a smuggling operation by a Lebanese Army unit in the Qasr-Hermel area—smuggling rocket shells and approximately 24 kilograms of highly explosive TNT from Syrian to Lebanese territory—these incidents have heightened fears in Beirut of plots to carry out political assassinations following the pattern of the wave of targeting that occurred between 2005 and 2013 against figures from what was known as the March 14 Forces, which opposed the ousted Assad regime and Hezbollah, including former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri.
Al-Rai learned that one of Lebanon’s most prominent political leaders, along with others, has raised security precautions to the highest levels, adopting extreme camouflage measures that minimize to the greatest extent the circle of those aware of their movements and even their actual locations. This is amid the consideration that this transitional phase, during which the country stands on the brink of a strategic shift—whether a settlement is reached with Iran under U.S. conditions or Lebanon’s front erupts again—is fraught with the highest risks of attempts to eliminate political figures who practically constitute the vessel into which domestic balance shifts will be poured, reflecting geopolitical changes in the region. This recalls the “operational theater” upon which former President Rafic Hariri was eliminated, after the decision to remove Syria’s Assad from Lebanon had been made and was merely a matter of time.
Amid calls for the investigations into the explosives case to reach their conclusion and for matters to be named by their proper names regarding the objectives of smuggling these vast quantities, the Lebanese MTV station reported that “the Hezbollah shipment (seized on Monday) departed from Baalbek toward Beirut, and the detainees ‘admitted during interrogation that Hezbollah had asked them to deliver the explosives to a leader in the southern suburbs, and that a figure known as ‘Mr. Sajjad’ was the one who handed them the explosives and instructed them to deliver them to another leader,’ and that ‘security agencies are investigating to identify the rest of Hezbollah’s operatives for their arrest.’”
Justice Minister Adil Nassar affirmed that “the process of dismantling illegal arms, combating terrorism, and pursuing outlaws is ongoing without any retreat,” stressing that its pace will accelerate in the coming phase.
Nassar stated in a post on the X platform that “the dismantling of illegal arms, combating terrorism, and pursuing all outlaws is an irreversible path that will accelerate. The investigation concerning the seized explosives, and everything stemming from it, will be completed to the end.”
The Lebanese Ministry of Public Works and Transport announced that “in light of risk assessments and the follow-up of measures taken by Saudi Civil Aviation Authority authorities in managing their airspace, flights of Middle East Airlines to Saudi Arabia will continue, with daily and continuous risk evaluation and the adoption of appropriate measures when necessary.”
This came after a meeting held by Minister of Public Works and Transport Fayez Rasamni, in light of “the condemned attacks targeting civilian airports in Saudi Arabia,” with Captain Muhammad Aziz, Chairman of the Board and Managing Director of the General Authority of Civil Aviation, and Muhammad Al-Hout, Chairman of the Board and Managing Director of Middle East Airlines (Lebanese Airlines).
Rasamni opened the meeting by condemning “the brutal attacks on Saudi airports,” affirming “Lebanon’s full solidarity with the sister Kingdom, both in leadership and among its people, and its standing by its side in protecting its security and the safety of its citizens and residents, extending heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims and to the Saudi aviation family.”
