Proxy Wars... Are They Leading the World to a New International System?

Proxy wars are no longer merely a tool used by major powers to avoid direct confrontation; they have become one of the most prominent features of the current international system. From Ukraine to the Middle East, and from the Red Sea to areas of competition in Asia, the interests of international and regional powers are intertwined in such a way that local conflicts become part of a broader international confrontation.

Thus, it can be said that the world is experiencing a state resembling a distributed world war, not a Third World War in the traditional sense, since major powers have not all engaged in direct military confrontation. Rather, it is a series of interconnected wars and crises in which weapons, financing, alliances, sanctions, energy, technology, and information intersect.

The most dangerous development in 2026 is that some of these conflicts are no longer confined to the proxy framework. The Iranian-American confrontation represents a clear model of this shift. Since 2026, the confrontation has escalated to a direct level between the United States and Iran. Iran responded with strikes targeting regional sites, and the crisis transformed into a wide regional war whose effects extended to energy security, global navigation, and the global economy. Even as of September 2026, the war continues amid efforts to reopen negotiations.

Here lies the issue: when a proxy war drags on, it may cease to be merely a proxy conflict. When the circle of targeting expands and the powers backing regional parties enter into direct confrontation, the line between regional and international war becomes increasingly fragile. This is precisely what makes the Iranian-American confrontation crucial for understanding the current phase. It is not just about Iran, Israel, or the United States; rather, it reveals how quickly a regional crisis threatening the security of neighboring states can evolve into a crisis affecting global energy markets, sea lanes, and the calculations of major powers.

Economic repercussions have already emerged amid anticipation of potential US-Iran talks, while regional tensions remained high. This illustrates how regional wars can now transmit their effects immediately to the global economy.

The same scene repeats, albeit in different forms, in the Russian-Ukrainian war. The conflict is no longer confined to Moscow and Kyiv; it is linked to Western military support, sanctions, defense spending, and the reshaping of security calculations in Europe. Consequently, the world faces a set of conflict zones that appear geographically separate but are all connected to a larger question: who holds power, and who will set the rules for the next international order?

These developments do not mean that a Third World War is inevitable, but they reflect something important: countries are preparing for a more conflict-ridden and less stable world.

Economically, China continues to strengthen its position as a global economic power despite trade pressures and disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East. Conversely, China faces internal challenges, including the real estate sector, declining workforce growth, and productivity issues. Therefore, China’s rise does not mean that a transition of hegemony to it is predetermined or automatic.

However, China possesses a key advantage at this stage: it competes for international influence using multiple tools simultaneously—the economy, trade, technology, investments, military power, and relations with countries of the Global South. Therefore, the continued attrition of other powers in wars may open a broader space for Beijing to influence the shape of the next international order.

History tells us that major shifts in the balance of power are often accompanied by periods of instability. When a dominant power defends its position against the rise of a rival seeking greater influence, the sensitivity of regional crises increases, as any minor conflict can become part of the broader competition.

This is the essence of what is happening today.

The United States seeks to maintain its position at the apex of the international system, while China advances economically, militarily, and technologically, and Russia strives to consolidate its status as a significant global power. In the Middle East, the Iranian–American–Israeli confrontation exemplifies the potential for conflicts to escalate from proxy engagements to direct state-to-state confrontations.

The most critical question is what kind of international order will emerge after this phase of wars concludes?

The outcome may not be complete Chinese hegemony, as the United States still possesses substantial military, economic, and technological capabilities, along with extensive alliances. However, the trend worth monitoring is the world’s transition from a unipolar hegemony to a more multipolar and competitive system, in which China occupies a far larger role than it did in past decades.

From this perspective, the current proxy wars can be read as more than mere regional disputes; they are part of the political and strategic birth pangs of an international system that is transforming before our eyes.

World War III may not have begun in its traditional form, nor may it ever start that way. Yet, in 2026, the world is experiencing a series of interconnected conflicts, some of which have already shifted from proxy engagements to direct confrontation. If this trajectory continues, the question may no longer be, in the future, who won each war, but rather which actor will emerge from this phase better positioned to shape the rules of the new international order.