Qasim to Israel: Your security is assured, so why do you want the Lebanese army to withdraw our weapons?
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is holding talks today in Washington with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The discussions will focus on the situation in the south, which is witnessing an Israeli escalation feared to be a precursor to a broader military incursion, as well as the track of direct negotiations between Beirut and Tel Aviv and ways to accelerate the implementation of the “Framework Agreement” signed on June 26 through faster steps and the establishment of the mechanism stipulated therein. The talks will also address the post-phase following the end of the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) at the end of the year.
In his speech marking the second anniversary of the assassination of Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah and Sayyid Hashim Safi al-Din, Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem addressed Prime Minister Salam with a renewed, direct attack on “the authority that suddenly made a humiliating concession in the Framework Agreement and is aiding the Israeli-American project instead of confronting it.” He reiterated the call to freeze direct negotiations and pursue indirect talks, and to insist that the weapons containment file remain subject to internal dialogue after the south is liberated, displaced persons return, and reconstruction takes place. He linked any dialogue with the Lebanese state to the reversal of the decision declaring Hezbollah and its military wing “outside the law.” He concluded by affirming support for “the people’s right to take to the streets and express their grievances through legitimate means regarding livelihood issues and reconstruction, and that we stand with them.”
Qassem’s remarks, which reaffirmed Hezbollah’s position that the Iranian-American memorandum of understanding “is what reduced the level of escalation on the Lebanon front to the level we see today,” gained particular significance as he once again emptied the Lebanese state of its only leverage card on the eve of Salam’s meeting with Rubio. That card is Hezbollah’s arsenal, whose withdrawal from all of Lebanon remains the lock and key to ending the Israeli occupation of more than 700 kilometers of the south, preventing the expansion of the “Yellow Line,” and accelerating the enlargement of “experimental zones.” He also sought to preempt any further steps by Tel Aviv toward additional withdrawal (within the framework of “experimentalism”) or the establishment of a withdrawal plan (a timeline), considering such moves “a result of the resistance’s steadfastness and the memorandum of understanding, not the Framework Agreement.” He warned that “surrender to the enemy means the end of Lebanon.”
Qassem’s stance cemented Hezbollah’s insistence that the Iranian-American track, in its military and diplomatic dimensions, is the regulator of its weapons file regionally. This deepens the dilemma facing the Lebanese state, which is unable to implement its weapons containment decisions as long as Hezbollah refuses them, while the state excludes the option of confrontation with the group. Meanwhile, political circles have noted that this also reveals a new convergence with Israel on delaying the implementation of the “Framework Agreement.” Israel links this to the requirements of Knesset elections and ensuring the dismantling of Hezbollah’s arsenal across Lebanon, while Hezbollah seeks to control the file’s pace according to the Iran front and its “last” defense lines, while maintaining “sufficient weight” for its arsenal to ensure a “bargaining chip” regarding the distribution of power in the country, either “the day after” the war or as a prelude to it.
In this context, political circles, despite their hostility toward Hezbollah, focused on what appeared to be an attempt by Qassem to “reassure” Tel Aviv of its security while seeking to curb the momentum regarding the weapons file. Addressing the Israelis, he said, “You spent two years trying to disarm the weapons and failed. So why do you ask the Lebanese Army? What is your relationship with the weapons? You cite Israeli security, but Israeli security is already secured, and you have done what you wanted to do. Asking the national Lebanese Army to be a tool for you is too long a rope around your neck.”
According to the same circles, Qasem’s adoption of the anticipated street demands starting on Wednesday, unless contained by today’s ministerial meetings, is no less significant. This move serves as a protest against the living conditions and rampant inflation that continue to worsen alongside rising fuel prices. The handling of “riding the wave of protests” is viewed as one of Hezbollah’s pressure cards, aimed at eliciting regional and international offers based on the equation that escalating pressure to disarm Hezbollah is equivalent to “heating up” the call to topple the government and “burning it with the fire” of protests. It remains unclear whether Hezbollah will go beyond mere messaging, especially since it recently avoided withholding confidence in the government during its general debate session to protect the presence of its two ministers, and because President Nabih Berri refuses to bring down the government.
The second anniversary of Nasrallah’s assassination highlighted the greater isolation Hezbollah faces domestically. No representatives of the presidency or the government, nor security leaders, attended the occasion. The only significant political presence from its allies was former MP Suleiman Frangieh. Meanwhile, strong rumors circulated of a “verbal boxing match” between Hezbollah leader Nawaf Musawi and the Free Patriotic Movement, led by MP Gebran Bassil, stemming from Bassil’s recent positions rejecting the wars supporting Gaza and Iran, which were deemed offensive to Hezbollah’s environment.
Nasrallah’s anniversary did not divert attention from the situation in southern Lebanon, where Israel continued its escalation inside and outside the “yellow line” through bombings and airstrikes.
The Israeli military announced it carried out strikes on Hezbollah sites in several southern areas in response to the launch of an explosive-laden drone toward its forces inside the “security zone” on Saturday night. It noted that the incident resulted in no casualties.
Israel affirmed it would continue working to “eliminate immediate threats,” warning that it would respond to any use of force from Lebanese territory targeting Israel or its forces. At the same time, it clarified that it remains committed to the “agreement between Israel and Lebanon.”
An Israeli security source announced that Hezbollah is rebuilding its strength according to the new reality in southern Lebanon, noting that it has shifted from a conventional military force to small groups dispersed across different areas. “It is rearranging its military deployment, with most of its forces concentrated north of the Litani River.”
The source pointed out that the city of Nabatieh has become a contact zone with Israeli forces, adding that Hezbollah’s weakness has increased its reliance on Iran, which is working to rebuild its capabilities.
