US Anticipates Three Scenarios for Iran: Internal Division, Uprising, or Binding Agreement

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that pressure on Iran would ultimately force it to capitulate, noting that he could not determine whether that would take a week, a month, or two months, while Iran threatened to expand the conflict “as far as the Indian Ocean.”

In an interview with Fox News, Bessent added that there are three possible scenarios: a split within the Iranian regime, the outbreak of a popular uprising, or Tehran agreeing to conclude and adhere to an agreement.

He also affirmed that if an agreement is reached this time, it would ensure Iran’s compliance with its terms.

In Tehran, Yahya Rahim Safavi, an advisor to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that further US and Israeli attacks on Iran could lead to a geographical expansion of the conflict “as far as the Indian Ocean.”

In a video clip broadcast by Fars News Agency, Safavi said, “With the conflict now extending from the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, this scope is likely to widen, in response to a potential war, as far as the Indian Ocean, or perhaps even beyond.”

He continued, “We and the Yemenis share a common destiny, and some of us defend the other. A threat to Yemen is a threat to Iran.”

Meanwhile, data from a maritime tracking service showed that three oil tankers linked to Tehran, which had been seized by the United States and were carrying approximately six million barrels of Iranian crude, were sailing in the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.

The tankers had not specified their destination via their transponders, but TankerTrackers, a specialized website, reported on Wednesday in a post on the X platform that “nearly six million barrels (valued at around $600 million) of seized Iranian crude oil are quietly crossing the Atlantic Ocean toward the United States.”

According to data from the Kpler maritime tracking platform, one of these tankers, the Majestic X, briefly listed the United States as its destination from July 31 to August 2, before it began heading toward the Atlantic from off the coast of Malaysia.

The three tankers are subject to US sanctions aimed at curbing the Islamic Republic’s oil exports. Washington seized them after imposing a blockade on Iranian ports, in response to Tehran’s continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz as part of the regional war.