Danish Intelligence: Russian invasion of a NATO member state is possible... but unlikely
The Danish military intelligence agency reported on Thursday that there is a growing risk of Russia carrying out military action against a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member state, while simultaneously confirming that a full-scale Russian invasion is “extremely unlikely” but remains possible.
European countries are maintaining a state of high alert in anticipation of any Russian intervention, amid concerns that Moscow may target Western nations supporting Kyiv, as more than four and a half years have passed since the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Thomas Åhrinkiel, head of Danish military intelligence, stated during a press conference presenting the latest assessment of the Russian threat, “There is a small but increasing risk that Russia will launch limited military attacks against a NATO member state bordering Russia.”
He added, “We still consider it extremely unlikely that Russia would see any benefit in invading a NATO member state, but we cannot rule out this possibility.”
The agency’s assessment suggests that Russia is likely to carry out further “multi-domain attacks” against targets in the West.
It noted that such attacks in the past have “primarily aimed at intimidation and weakening public support for aiding Ukraine.”
However, it pointed out that these operations have now begun to include actions aimed at preventing support from reaching Ukraine, such as sabotage against defense companies or railway lines transporting military equipment.
The agency also reported a slight possibility that Russia could launch a limited military attack even as the war in Ukraine continues, in an attempt to divert European resources away from Kyiv.
Its report clarified that “launching a limited military attack would be a desperate move by Russia, and could occur in the form of intensified multi-domain attacks in the coming months.”
However, it noted that “building up forces requires several months of preparation and would be difficult to conceal.”
Åhrinkiel emphasized that although “Russia’s increasing willingness to take risks has consequences for Denmark’s security situation,” particularly through multi-domain attacks, this does not mean that Russia is preparing to attack a Scandinavian country.
