"Super El Niño" could cause 451,000 additional deaths

SINGAPORE - Reuters - Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab predicted that the extreme heat driven by this year’s “super” El Niño could lead to as many as 451,000 additional deaths worldwide over the six-month period through February 2027.

The lab stated in a report that the number of extreme heat days is likely to increase by 44 percent compared with normal years, noting that the countries most likely to suffer the highest number of additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 are Nigeria, with 31,400 deaths, followed by Indonesia with 19,300, and then Sudan with 17,600.

The heat wave in the African Sahel region, which includes Niger and Chad in addition to Nigeria and Sudan, is likely to cause 66,800 additional deaths during the six-month period.

Excess deaths could rise further if the El Niño phenomenon extends into 2027, as key areas in the Northern Hemisphere, including India and Pakistan, would be at very high risk during the summer months.

The lab described this year’s El Niño as a “message from the future,” telling us the temperatures that will become normal within just a few decades.