Kuwait Investment Company (KIC) Investments: Kuwait's oil production increases by 70,000 barrels per day

A report by KAMCO Invest on the performance of global oil markets noted that Brent crude futures prices regained the $100-per-barrel level for the first time in about two months last week, driven by worsening geopolitical tensions.

The report stated that rising crude oil prices and persistent supply chain bottlenecks created strong headwinds, leading to a decline in demand according to the latest forecasts from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA). The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also marginally lowered its 2026 demand growth forecasts in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. This comes amid downward pressure on consumption from higher fuel costs and broader economic uncertainty, which are affecting industrial demand and retail fuel use across major economies.

On the supply side, the report pointed to a decline in OPEC crude supplies in August, erasing more than half of the gains recorded in the previous month. Saudi production hit its lowest level since 1990, while Iraq and Venezuela announced significant increases in output. Meanwhile, U.S. oil production reached a record high of 13.86 million barrels per day (bpd) in the last week of August, following five consecutive weeks of growth.

Prices fell 2.8% to settle at $104.6 at the week’s close. The OPEC Reference Basket recorded a relatively modest gain of 4.2%, reaching $86.4 in August, compared to $83 in July 2026. Kuwaiti Export Crude posted the smallest monthly increase among the three benchmarks, rising marginally by 0.9% to average $82.8 in August.

The report forecast global oil demand to grow by 0.4 million bpd in 2026, averaging 105.84 million bpd, reflecting a slight downward revision from OPEC’s previous estimates.

For 2027, the report anticipated a recovery in global oil demand, growing by approximately 2.4 million bpd year-on-year to average 108.19 million bpd. This growth is expected to be supported by a 0.4 million bpd increase in demand among OECD member countries and a 1.9 million bpd rise in non-OECD countries.

The IEA revised its 2027 demand recovery forecast upward by 200,000 bpd, projecting growth of 2.6 million bpd. The EIA also forecast a 2027 oil demand recovery, reaching approximately 104.98 million bpd.

The report noted that OPEC maintained its previous production forecasts for non-OPEC oil liquids in its latest report, projecting growth of 0.64 million bpd to average 54.8 million bpd in 2026. This trend is expected to continue into 2027, with non-OPEC oil liquids production projected to grow by 0.62 million bpd to average 55.5 million bpd.

The EIA also forecast that U.S. crude oil production would reach a record high of 13.8 million bpd in 2026.

The report highlighted that OPEC oil production declined again after rising for two consecutive months, primarily driven by renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Most OPEC members recorded lower production during the month, averaging 19.91 million bpd in August 2026, down from 20.81 million bpd in the previous month, a monthly decrease of 0.9 million bpd, according to Bloomberg.

Saudi Arabia recorded the largest monthly decline in production during the month, at 1.12 million barrels per day, bringing its average to 6.98 million barrels per day, the lowest level in three months. Iran followed with a production drop of 140,000 barrels per day, averaging 2.41 million barrels per day, while Libya and Equatorial Guinea saw a combined decrease of 80,000 barrels per day over the month.

On the other hand, Iraq recorded the largest production increase during the month, at 270,000 barrels per day, raising its average to 2.98 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, according to secondary OPEC sources, the average total crude oil production of countries participating in the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee reached 38.05 million barrels per day, a monthly increase of 0.3 million barrels. Iraq raised its output by 664,000 barrels per day to approximately 3.4 million, while Kuwait’s production increased by 49,000 barrels per day and Kazakhstan’s by 159,000 barrels per day.