Oil Surpasses $105 as the World’s Eyes Remain Fixed on China

Reuters and Bloomberg – Oil prices continued their gains after Brent crude surpassed $105 a barrel in the previous session, amid traders’ concerns over worsening supply disruptions amid the latest exchange of attacks between Iran and the United States on shipping traffic, marking the largest such strikes since the conflict began six months ago.

Brent crude futures rose $4.46, or 4.46 percent, to $105.70, climbing roughly 70 percent since the start of 2026, although the global benchmark remains below its peak of $126 a barrel recorded in April during the war. Brent prices also surged 30 percent compared to the lows seen in early August. US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.91, or 4.34 percent, to $100.40 a barrel.

John Evans, an analyst at PVM, said: “The latest price increase clearly reveals the market’s view that this conflict will last longer than expected just a month ago, let alone at the beginning of the summer. If oil supplies and exports decline, the market will remain in a supply deficit, and prices will stay high.”

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which transported about 20 percent of global oil and gas supplies before the war, remain far below pre-war levels.

While fears of prolonged and more severe supply disruptions in the Gulf region have pushed Brent prices above $100 a barrel, analysts say the sustainability of this rise depends on China.

For the physical oil market, data from the London Metal Exchange group show that the Brent prompt contract, which prices about two-thirds of global supplies, has exceeded $100 a barrel since September 3.

ING analysts said in a note that China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, has intensified its purchases in recent weeks after demand had fallen for months, bolstering physical oil markets.

They added that if China’s purchases continue to recover, it could amplify the impact of any supply disruptions and push prices higher, but a decline in imports could limit market gains.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Bloomberg that slightly less than 11 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum products pass through the Strait of Hormuz. He also offered a more optimistic assessment than President Trump regarding gasoline prices, saying they would fall in the coming weeks as efforts to increase US refining capacity accelerate.

US fuel inventories are currently expected to drop this month to their lowest level in over two decades, according to the Energy Information Administration.