Did Tel Aviv find Iran’s vulnerable flank... and thus launch an assault on Hezbollah?
The toll of 28 dead and 69 wounded, including women and children, since Saturday in the Israeli “wave of fire” ravaging southern Lebanon, has reflected the magnitude of the risks surrounding the country at a moment of extreme sensitivity in the region. In this context, the small nation is exposed not only to the noses of warplanes but also to the maws of regional volcanoes, the most volatile of which is the Iranian front, which has held Hezbollah hostage since the group launched its operations on March 2 under the banner of “a war of vengeance for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.”
As the first hours of Monday began, 12 people were killed in Kafr Rumman (in the Nabatieh district), 11 of them inside a building struck at dawn, including two infants and four women, while a paramedic was killed in a strike on a car in the same town, along with nine others wounded. This escalation has deepened the ambiguity surrounding the background of the systematic Israeli escalation that followed the fall of Tell al-Tahr, extending toward Al-Rayhan (in the Jezzine district). This period coincided with Hezbollah’s launch of drones against Israeli forces at Tell al-Tahr, as Tel Aviv completed preparations to detonate the two main tunnels beneath it. The situation culminated in Hezbollah’s “return” to the vicinity of the occupied Castle of Shqif (occupied for three months and more), where a “face-to-face” confrontation occurred, announced by the Israeli army. It clarified that “during a sweep operation carried out by a force from the Golani Reconnaissance Unit in the Shqif Heights (Bofour) area, a Hezbollah saboteur inside a building opened fire on the troops, and they eliminated him.”
At a time when the intensification of the southern front was seen as reflecting Lebanon’s repositioning between Tel Aviv’s lack of deterrence against translating its field superiority into further incursions to “secure the security zone,” possibly expanding it and imposing facts on the “negotiation balance” with Beirut, and Tehran’s insistence on leveraging the “Cedar Country” for its front despite Hezbollah’s loss of any capacity to deter Israel, fears have grown that Tel Aviv is pursuing two simultaneous objectives through the southern theater:
- Increasing pressure on the Lebanese side ahead of the anticipated round of negotiations by mid-month or shortly thereafter, by raising the cost of compliance and keeping the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons withdrawal subject to the outcomes of the Iranian front.
- Paving the way to complete the “war of the heights,” which began with the occupation of Shqif, thereby opening the path to the fall of Tell al-Tahr. This location forms a natural geographical extension linking the heights to the “Castle” area and serving as a gateway to the mountainous interior of the Apple Region and Mount Al-Rayhan, and subsequently as an entry point for expansion toward the Western Beqaa.
Following the Friday strike on the town of Ain al-Tineh (Western Beqaa), it was no coincidence that Israel launched a strike on a motorcycle between Sajjad and Al-Rayhan (in the Jezzine district) on Monday, resulting in one death. This development reinforced the notion that Tel Aviv is sending a “fire signal” regarding its next target after Tell al-Tahr, suggesting that its rolling escalation goes beyond establishing a defensive line for the security zone, which it declared complete with the fall of the hill (covering approximately 700 square kilometers south of the Litani River and part of the north of the river). Instead, it reveals an “open appetite” for further encroachment on Hezbollah’s strategic areas.
Political circles viewed the coming days as sufficient to answer the question of whether Israel is conducting a media maneuver by throwing what could be described as a “smoke bomb,” implying that it is on the verge of reducing the security zone in southern Lebanon and retreating from the “red line” (with a depth of 8 to 10 kilometers) to a range with a depth of 2 to 4 kilometers, within what has been termed the “gray line.” They believed that a factor may have played a role in causing Tel Aviv to persist on the ground, potentially leading to a battle for the hills in the Apple Region and Jezzine, extending to the Western Bekaa.
These circles paused to consider the atmosphere surrounding the claim that the fall of Ali al-Tahir hill occurred “without resistance to the last breath,” a scenario Hezbollah had threatened Israelis with, and the subsequent portrayal by its close associates of the hill as being on par with the Strait of Hormuz. This may be linked to Iranian moods that preferred not to highlight the occupation of this site through a major confrontation, as such a move would have further exposed the lack of support for Hezbollah, contrary to what its leaders and affiliated analysts had propagated.
The crux of this Iranian behavior lies in the fact that Tehran, like Tel Aviv, is now bound by the imperatives of its front with the United States. For Iran, this involves being forced to regulate the pace of Hezbollah’s field operations in a way that does not provoke a confrontation with Israel, and consequently with Washington, at a time when it cannot control all the variables, if it chooses to engage at all. For the United States, it involves the inability to escape the constraints set by President Donald Trump regarding refraining from actions that could sabotage his administration’s handling of the war with the Islamic Republic through various means, the latest being an iron blockade and reigniting the confrontation at the wrong place and time.
From this perspective, circles wondered whether Tel Aviv sensed Iranian caution and decided to escalate against Hezbollah and continue its expansion across the heights, even if using the same gradual and systematic approach employed for weeks at Ali al-Tahir, unless an American “order” to calm the field and press the PAUSE button is issued, allowing negotiations with Lebanon to resume and avoiding embarrassing Beirut with developments that confuse it and increase internal political burdens on the government.
Reports from the Central News Agency, citing diplomatic circles, indicated that Israeli officials expressed their readiness to hold the eighth round of negotiations after the Jewish New Year on September 11. It was noted that the political and military delegations would separate in their negotiation tracks: the political delegation is expected to convene in Rome or, more likely, in Jordan, due to its proximity to Lebanon and Israel, on the 14th and 15th of the current month, while the military delegation’s meetings will be held at the US Central Command (CENTCOM) headquarters in Tampa, Florida.
According to these circles, Gal Hirsch, the Israeli official in charge of the prisoners and missing persons file, will participate in the political delegation’s meetings “after the US Ambassador to Lebanon, Michael Issa, succeeded in persuading the Israeli Prime Minister to offer a gesture of goodwill toward Lebanon by releasing a number of non-combatant Hezbollah prisoners. This step comes in response to the Lebanese initiative to provide Israel with information on approximately 80 Jews in Lebanon, as well as information regarding the remains of one military officer.”
In a related development, as the countdown continues to the preparatory Paris conference for supporting the Lebanese Army, scheduled for the 17th, reports in Beirut indicated that the event would be chaired by French President Emmanuel Macron, Lebanese President General Joseph Aoun, and Jordanian King Abdullah II. More than 30 chiefs of staff from participating countries, including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, are expected to attend, alongside representatives of international organizations, funds, and financial institutions.
During a meeting with French Minister of Justice Gérard Darmanin, Aoun stated, “My visit to Paris next week to participate alongside President Macron in the opening of the preparatory meeting for the international conference to support the Army and Internal Security Forces, and to discuss the issue of an international force in the South, confirms that Lebanon supports the renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate in the South. We are working with President Macron to facilitate this renewal,” while welcoming “the French and Italian initiative to form a European force to fill the gap after UNIFIL’s withdrawal (at the end of the year).”
He viewed Israel’s “repeated attacks, killing of innocents, children, and women, destruction and burning of homes, and confiscation of property as condemnable, rejected, and unjustified crimes that target the framework agreement process and undermine all efforts to halt escalation in the South and the region as a whole.”
Earlier, Aoun discussed with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, during a phone call on Monday, the general situation in Lebanon and the region, as well as the rapid security developments in the South, in addition to matters of mutual interest.
Aoun thanked Mohamed bin Zayed “for the attention the UAE pays to Lebanon’s needs across various fields and for the support it provides to alleviate the suffering of Lebanese people during these difficult times,” adding that “the visit by the UAE delegation, led by Minister of Foreign Trade Dr. Thani bin Ahmed Al Ziyoudi, to Lebanon, and the productive meetings held with Lebanese officials and businessmen, as well as the warm reception accorded to the Lebanese delegation that visited Abu Dhabi last week, reflect the depth of the fraternal relations between the two brotherly countries and lay the foundation for further cooperation in all economic, commercial, and investment fields.”
