Trump Crystallizes the “Day After” Strategy for the War
The administration of US President Donald Trump is drafting a post-war strategy that includes establishing a regional system to contain Iran, expanding normalization between Israel and regional states, and pushing for settlements in Lebanon, Syria, and the Gaza Strip, according to Axios and Israel’s Channel 12, citing senior US officials and other informed sources.
Although the plan is still in its early stages, it aims to outline the broad contours of US strategy in the Middle East following the war, as well as for the remaining two years of Trump’s term, the period after Israel’s upcoming October elections, and the US midterm elections in November.
US officials stated that initial work on the strategy is underway on two levels: the highest political level within the Trump administration, and at the working level through interagency coordination mechanisms.
According to sources, Trump held two meetings with his top advisors in recent weeks dedicated to discussing the issue and exploring various ideas regarding the shape of the coming phase. In closed-door meetings, the US president stated that he is working on a “broader plan” for the post-war period.
An Israeli source familiar with the details said there is consideration within the US administration for a “regional plan that combines weakening Iran, expanding the circle of normalization, and achieving regional stability,” adding that the discussion centers on a “post-election plan for Israel.”
According to sources, three main elements have been proposed in discussions so far as part of a potential post-war strategy:
1. Establishing a regional system aimed at containing Iran, based on regional allies, with Washington serving as the guarantor of this system, but not acting as a regional policeman.
2. Closing files that have remained open since October 7, 2023, or making progress toward closing them: implementing the next phase of Trump’s Gaza plan, reaching a security agreement between Israel and Syria, and implementing the agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
The Trump administration hopes that any new Israeli government formed after the October 27 elections will be ready and able to cooperate in implementing the post-war strategy.
Nevertheless, many senior US officials emphasize that Trump will push for this strategy regardless of the outcome of the Israeli elections, even if it leads to a political dead end.
He continued, “The idea is to link many issues in the region. How can a regional framework be created after the war? It remains unclear whether all regional allies will be able to participate in it.”
Meanwhile, following remarks by his vice president, JD Vance, that the conflict is not considered a “war” from Washington’s perspective, Trump told reporters on Friday night, “Many don’t call it a war. I call it a military conflict because it’s a simple matter for us. It’s not a big deal.”
He added, “It’s not a big deal. We did (what we did) in Venezuela, and we carried out this confrontation with the Islamic Republic.”
He continued, “Call it whatever you want; it’s not important. What matters is that we achieved great success. We prevented Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.”
He added, “What we did was amazing. We took control of Venezuela and generally took control of Iran.”
As Washington continues to intensify economic pressure on Tehran, the US military announced that it bombed and destroyed three oil tankers belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in response to the IRGC launching ballistic missiles at two US Navy ships. Meanwhile, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth threatened Tehran, stating, “If Iran fires on our ships, we will destroy their oil tankers.”
In a statement, the military reported that “following the failed Iranian attacks, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) permanently disabled two Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps oil tankers: the DAWN off the coast of Kharg Island, and the STARK 1 near Jask. Additionally, U.S. forces completely destroyed the empty oil tanker KILO in the Gulf of Oman after striking the vessel at several critical locations, rendering it inoperable after orders were issued for the crew to abandon ship.”
The statement added that the three targeted vessels were “part of a multi-billion-dollar shadow network financing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxies in the region.”
CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper said: “Let our message to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps be clear: if you fire on two of our ships, we will impose a far greater economic cost on you by destroying three of yours. We will not hesitate to defend U.S. forces, and if necessary, we will destroy Iran’s limited and vulnerable oil fleet.”
The U.S. Embassy in Bahrain issued a security advisory to American citizens in the Middle East, urging them to exercise extreme caution and monitor flight updates in anticipation of any disruptions to maritime navigation.
The embassy noted in its statement that there are threats that could target civilian infrastructure and U.S. interests in the region, including hotels and diplomatic facilities.
