US Assessment: Iran Prolongs the War, Its People Pay the Price

As food prices surge and Iranian households’ ability to meet their basic needs declines, U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that the Iranian regime is not seeking a quick exit from the war, but rather aims to prolong it for months, relying on missiles, drones, and the Strait of Hormuz.

Data from the Iranian Statistics Center, cited by Reuters, showed that the annual inflation rate reached 66 percent in July, with consumer prices up 87.9 percent compared to the previous year, and the annual increase in food prices hitting 128 percent.

The crisis is deepening amid a decline in trade activity. President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that foreign trade has fallen by about 35 percent due to sanctions and the blockade, according to Reuters.

Despite this cost, a New York Times report citing current and former officials indicates that Tehran shows little willingness to reach a comprehensive agreement with Washington.

Some officials believe the regime may seek to keep the conflict going until the U.S. midterm elections in November, hoping that rising fuel prices and declining public support for the war will weaken President Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

Thus, time has become a political tool in Tehran’s calculations, while this strategy practically imposes greater living and economic pressures on the domestic front. Each additional month of war brings harsher sanctions, reduced trade, higher prices, and further human losses.

The Strait of Hormuz lies at the heart of these calculations. However, using the strait to drain the United States and its allies has also tightened Iran’s isolation and expanded the sanctions imposed on it.