OPEC+ moves toward no change in oil production in October

Reuters – Sources familiar with the matter said that the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday will most likely keep oil production policy unchanged for October, as the alliance completes the rollback of a portion of its production cuts this month and shifts its focus to negotiations on production quotas for next year.

The meeting comes as Iran’s war continues to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, thereby reducing OPEC+’s influence over price and market share determination. Unlike in the past, production decisions issued by the alliance now have only a limited impact on the market.

The meeting will include seven key OPEC+ members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman. These countries have been increasing their monthly production quotas for most of this year.

In practice, actual production has not met the planned increases in production quotas, as the war in Iran and the conflict in Ukraine have disrupted exports from the Gulf region, Russia, and Kazakhstan.

The increase this month, agreed upon in early August, completes a gradual process of rolling back supply cuts by 1.65 million barrels per day, a reduction initially approved by the alliance in 2023 when the group still included the United Arab Emirates, which withdrew from OPEC in May.

A second layer of OPEC+ production cuts covers most of the group’s 21 members until the end of 2026. The alliance is currently reviewing members’ oil production capacities to establish baseline production levels for 2027, which will form the basis for setting production quotas.