Trump announces strikes on targets near Hormuz and threatens Iran with "much harsher and stronger" attacks

- US President: Any agreement with Iran is not worth the paper it is written on

- For the first time... Tehran has missed large oil shipments for 7 weeks

Military escalation rhetoric has returned to the Strait of Hormuz crisis. On Tuesday evening, the US military announced it had “struck targets belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).” US President Donald Trump swiftly warned Tehran, stating, “We are conducting large-scale operations near the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran responds to this fully justified attack, it will be struck again with a much higher and stronger level.”

In response, Fars News Agency quoted an IRGC spokesperson as saying the United States “will regret its new attacks.” This came hours after the Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, threatened a military response if the US naval blockade escalated.

Trump stated that the US attacks were in response to Iran planting mines in the Strait of Hormuz and firing missiles at a base hosting US forces in Jordan. He warned, “If the failed state of Iran responds to this fully justified attack, it will face another strike that is much harsher and stronger. However, that will not be the biggest attack ever, as the biggest attack is still expected. When it ends, very little of the Islamic Republic of Iran will remain.”

Fox News quoted Trump as saying, “Any agreement with Iran is not worth the paper it is written on, and we have given them many chances.”

Meanwhile, a US official stated that the number of air raids expected to be carried out on the night of Tuesday-Wednesday could reach 100, according to Axios.

Earlier, the US president had ruled out the use of nuclear weapons against Iran. When asked about the possibility of using nuclear weapons against Iran, Trump appeared more resolute, answering, “I would never say that, but the answer is yes; I rule that out. There is no reason to use it.”

However, he added, “This does not mean we will not hit them. We will see what happens.”

Trump downplayed the prospects of reaching an agreement with Tehran, although he left the door open and did not rule out a return to communications. He also cast doubt on the existence of a clear leadership with whom to deal.

In Bishkek, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian announced during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit that “if the United States returns to its commitments under the memorandum of understanding (...), we will immediately take similar measures.”

For his part, Putin declared the solidarity of the Russian people with the Iranians “in defending their interests.”

Pezeshkian also held a meeting with UN Secretary-General António Guterres, while exchanging brief remarks with Chinese President Xi Jinping as they entered the summit hall, without holding a bilateral meeting.

Commercially, for the first time in history, Iran has gone nearly seven weeks without shipping any significant quantities of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The US blockade has achieved what sanctions failed to do over the years, cutting off one of the Islamic Republic’s main sources of foreign income.

Unlike previous sanction campaigns during which Iranian crude oil continued to reach buyers despite restrictions, the current blockade has prevented any new crude shipments from reaching China, the last remaining major consumer of Iranian oil. This has increased pressure on the government’s financial resources and foreign currency reserves.

According to Kpler, Fortexa, and the website TankerTrackers.com, Tehran has not succeeded in exporting any oil shipments to China through the Strait of Hormuz since Washington reimposed the naval blockade on July 14.

Consequently, Iran can only sell crude oil to China from floating storage facilities in Asia, whose inventory cannot be replenished as crude accumulates on tankers in the strait.

Claire Youngman, an analyst at Fortex, said, “Even at the peak of sanctions imposed to exert maximum pressure during 2019 and 2020, some Iranian crude oil was passing through the strait each month, and export flows never dropped to near zero for an extended continuous period as has been the case since mid-July.”

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported via the X platform on Monday night that a tanker “was hit by three unidentified projectiles while exiting the Strait of Hormuz, causing a fire on board.” It noted that the incident occurred 17 nautical miles east of the Omani city of Khasab, and added that “no human casualties or environmental damage were recorded.” The British maritime security company Vanguard later identified the vessel as the “Senegal Prosperity,” which flies the Liberian flag. It added that “the missiles struck the port side, engine room, and ballast tank, cutting off communications,” while confirming that the crew was safe.