Gulf oil exports recover and regain two-thirds of their pre-war levels
(Bloomberg) – Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported that oil exports from the Gulf region have recovered to about two-thirds of their pre-war levels, helping to mitigate the impact of the Iran conflict on global oil prices.
In a research note, the bank’s analysts said total exports of crude oil and petroleum products from the region rose to between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day, supported by increased transit traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Nevertheless, exports remain about 7 million to 8 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels, though they have improved markedly from the low recorded in March last year of 5 million to 6 million barrels per day.
Goldman Sachs noted that increased unreported transshipment by specialized tankers, alongside higher ship-to-ship transfers, reflect the ability of producers and shipping companies to adapt to disruptions in the Middle East.
The bank pointed out that rising flows could limit upward pressure on crude oil prices even if disruptions persist for longer.
It is difficult to determine the actual volumes of oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz with precision, as some tankers turn off satellite tracking devices to avoid detection, a practice known in the industry as “shadow sailing.” Traders told Bloomberg this week that between 6 million and 8 million barrels per day of crude oil are currently transiting the strait.
These exports have helped curb the rise in global oil prices, with prices falling to around $89 a barrel compared to more than $120 in April.
The traders’ estimate covers only oil transiting Hormuz and does not include some Saudi exports shipped via the Red Sea.
Conversely, Goldman Sachs noted that flows of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and refined petroleum products remain below normal levels, adding that the bank sees greater upside potential for natural gas prices in Europe and for petroleum product futures compared to crude oil prices if supply disruptions persist for extended periods.
