Netanyahu and Zamir engage in a 'complex political dance' ahead of Knesset elections... with the West Bank at its heart

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is maneuvering to bolster his image at the expense of Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, who, in turn, is sending a message that the military is prepared for every scenario. While many on the right are eager for a more confrontational approach in the occupied West Bank, Zamir is conveying to the public his concerns about security entanglements stemming from political considerations.

The newspaper Haaretz reported, “It appears that the West Bank will be the main arena of tension between the government and the Israeli military during the approximately two months remaining until the Knesset elections. In Iran, Lebanon, and the Gaza Strip, the rules of the game are largely determined by US President Donald Trump. At present, Trump does not appear to be seeking to escalate security tensions in the Middle East during the period leading up to the US midterm congressional elections, which will be held a week after Israel’s elections. However, the President has left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a certain margin to take initiative military steps, as evidenced by the repeated Israeli Air Force raids in Gaza, and to a lesser extent in Lebanon.”

The West Bank, however, is a different matter. Violence there, particularly attacks by Jewish extremist activists against Palestinians, has drawn widespread international attention, yet the US administration—aside from occasional expressions of shock by US Ambassador to Jerusalem Mike Huckabee—does not seem inclined to intervene decisively in the situation.

In the background, concerns among settlers, as well as their most effective representative in the government, Minister Bezalel Smotrich, are growing that the rules of the game may change after the elections: the wave of construction, displacement, and violence that has characterized the West Bank since the previous government took office in December 2022 could come to an end.

On Monday, Netanyahu made a sudden and unusual visit to the Central Command headquarters in Jerusalem. Shortly before the visit, Defense Minister Israel Katz and the Chief of Staff were notified and hurried to attend, each for their own reasons. Netanyahu and Katz listened to briefings from senior officers of the command, which emphasized concerns about losing control on the ground, given the noticeable rise in the number of violent incidents initiated by the Jewish side in the West Bank, along with the increasing severity of the violence used in these events.

Initially, only very specific parts of the discussion were leaked to the media. It was reported that Netanyahu requested a presentation of the military’s plan to confront a scenario of “turning the guns,” meaning a rapid security escalation in which members of the Palestinian Authority’s security apparatus would participate, for the first time since Operation Defensive Shield in 2002, in actual combat against the Israeli military.

The Chief of Staff responded that his men were unaware that the Prime Minister wanted to review the plan, and that it would be presented to him shortly.

This comes amid fears that, in light of the increasing attacks by settlers on villages adjacent to outposts and farms in Areas A and B, the Palestinian Authority may decide to arm local protection committees in those villages, which could then open fire during the next attack.

In practice, one reason this scenario has not materialized so far is the clear desire of the PA leadership to prevent a wide-scale confrontation in the West Bank that could affect the outcomes of the Israeli elections.

Through his maneuvering in the Central Command and the subsequent leaks, Netanyahu achieved several objectives: he introduced the possibility of the Palestinian Authority’s collapse into public discourse, and presented himself as the one urging the military to prepare for the worst-case scenario—a step he neglected to take on the eve of the October 7, 2023, attack. He also sought to craft a media narrative portraying the Chief of Staff as having failed to fulfill his duties.

Within the military, there are suspicions that there is a deeper agenda at play: that Netanyahu is paving the way for a deliberate deterioration in the West Bank, which would shift the electoral agenda away from the current debate over the failures that allowed the targeting of towns in the Gaza envelope.

On Thursday, the Israeli military spokesperson issued a statement regarding a “multi-front assessment of the situation” convened by the Chief of Staff that morning. Speaking to senior officers, Zamir stated that the army was in a “high state of alert facing flammability on multiple fronts,” and ordered the 98th Division headquarters to be placed on standby, ready to assume responsibility for half of the West Bank if necessary, while the Judea and Samaria Division continued to handle the other half.

Netanyahu and Zamir are engaged in a complex political dance. It appears that Zamir doubts the government’s intentions, given the unencouraging poll results for the coalition camp, and wishes to avoid dragging the military into new security complications driven by political considerations.

In response to the Prime Minister’s maneuvering, the Chief of Staff sends a message that the army is prepared for all scenarios, while simultaneously drawing the public’s indirect attention to the coalition’s political games. In the background, Zamir faces daily criticism on “Channel 14,” where he is portrayed as an “enemy of the kingdom.”

All of this aligns with statements from various mouthpieces that have begun hinting at a collective rejection of election results if the Netanyahu camp suffers a defeat.

Prior to that, many on the right, including Smotrich and prominent figures in settlement leadership, have not concealed their desire for a more intense confrontation in the West Bank. Beyond their impact on elections, such developments would allow them to justify a preemptive military move to overthrow the Palestinian Authority, followed by the annexation of territory and broader displacement of residents, similar to what Israel has done in the Gaza Strip in recent years.

Most Israeli media outlets pay little attention to developments in the West Bank unless major events or explosive provocations occur, such as the “settlers’ journey” to the village of Tell, which resulted in the deaths of two Israelis and four Palestinians last month, or the vandalism of a memorial in the village of Madma by Knesset member Tzvi Sukot of the Religious Zionism party last week.

In practice, however, a deliberate escalation in attacks on Palestinians can already be observed, and it is likely to worsen as the election date approaches. Until Saturday, attacks carried out by settlers had occurred, the most prominent of which took place again in the village of Qusra south of Nablus.

It will be interesting to learn how much Washington knows and understands about all this, and whether the Trump administration is considering the possibility that the West Bank could be the source of the next crisis.