Iceland votes to begin accession negotiations with the European Union
Icelanders voted on Saturday on whether to reopen accession negotiations with the European Union, as public opinion in the island nation remains sharply divided following a campaign focused on the cost of living, security, sovereignty, and control over fishing waters.
The polls are too close to call, making it impossible to predict the outcome. A poll conducted by Gallup on Friday indicated a slim majority opposes reopening negotiations, marking a slight shift from previous surveys that showed a narrow lead for supporters of resuming talks.
Supporters of the “Yes” campaign, which backs the negotiations, argue that joining the bloc could help mitigate rising interest rates and provide greater security in a world destabilized by the war in Ukraine and threats from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding another Arctic territory, Greenland.
Former Icelandic President Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson, one of the opponents of EU membership, wrote on social media, “Today is our date with history.”
If voters approve, it would only pave the way for talks with Brussels. Iceland would then likely hold a second referendum on EU membership, probably several years later.
Iceland first applied to join the European Union in 2009, amid a financial crisis that struck its small, highly externally vulnerable economy. Talks ended in 2013 when a skeptical government froze the process.
Foreign Minister Þórdís Kolbrún Reykfjörð Gylfadóttir, who supports a “Yes” vote, told Reuters last week that Saturday’s vote boils down to a simple question: “Is Iceland still able to afford to remain isolated in a world where old certainties are crumbling?”
She added, “The international system that underpinned our security and prosperity for decades is under severe pressure... In times like these, small countries must carefully consider their position and who stands with them.”
Debates within Iceland have focused more on interest rates, fishing rights, and the cost of living than on security.
Iceland has been grappling with persistent high inflation and interest rates that have made mortgages prohibitively expensive. Supporters of a “Yes” vote argue that EU membership, and possibly adopting the euro, could alleviate the crisis. The Central Bank of Iceland’s interest rate stands at 8 percent, compared to 2.25 percent at the European Central Bank.
Vilhjalmur Helmarsson, chief economist at Viðskiptabankinn (a major Icelandic trade union), said, “It won’t solve Iceland’s structural imbalances, but it could become a catalyst for a more robust economy.”
Estimates in a Foreign Ministry memo suggest that accession talks could begin by the end of 2026 and take 18 to 24 months, if Saturday’s vote supports reopening negotiations.
Polling stations opened at 09:00 GMT across the country, which has a population of around 400,000, and are scheduled to close at 22:00 GMT.
