The Israeli siege of Telah Ali Al-Taher leaves Hezbollah facing three options... all of them bad
The stalemate in negotiations between Lebanon and Israel no longer requires complex explanations; according to reports in Lebanese media, the political track, which was supposed to lead to a gradual Israeli withdrawal and the establishment of new security arrangements, is now colliding with the most significant obstacle of all: Hezbollah’s arsenal, according to military analyst Avi Shkhenazi in the Hebrew newspaper Ma’ariv.
Shkhenazi stated, “As Beirut prepares for an eighth round of talks, the date for which has not yet been set, the message from Tel Aviv is clear and decisive: there will be no withdrawal, and no final settlement will be reached, until weapons are transferred exclusively to the Lebanese government and the era of illegal arms comes to an end.”
Lebanese sources indicate that U.S. pressure on Israel is simply insufficient. While Washington can push for the resumption of negotiations and an Israeli pullout from experimental zones, it cannot restore sovereignty to Lebanon that it has lost.
A Lebanese security source told a Lebanese media outlet that the fierce battles raging around Ali al-Tahir hill demonstrate Israel’s determination to control the strategic hill and its network of tunnels at any cost. According to Lebanese security assessments, the Israeli military is carrying out a large number of secret operations in the area, away from the eyes of the media.
The security source added that “the combat situation for Hezbollah fighters and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is extremely poor, particularly regarding supply lines.” The Israeli military currently controls the hill and the exit routes from it; therefore, its “fall is only a matter of time.”
At the same time, the Israeli military currently controls the area and is preventing dozens of militants from exiting the tunnels located in the Ali al-Tahir hill range. According to reports in Lebanon, the Israeli military is preventing Hezbollah from delivering supplies to the tunnels.
Sources in Lebanon, as well as within the Israeli security establishment, estimate that the matter may take only days before the militants emerge from the tunnels, either with the intention of surrendering or attempting to fight.
The Israeli military estimated that dozens of militants are held inside what is called the “Shelter City,” a codename for Hezbollah’s strategic tunnels in Ali al-Tahir and the Qalaat al-Shaqif area.
Lebanese sources estimate that the number has decreased significantly following operations carried out by the Israeli military in the area over the past few weeks.
In recent days, the Israeli military has escalated its military pressure on the militants. The fact that they are completely isolated from the outside world places them before a decision they must make in the coming hours and days: either surrender, remain in the tunnels until death, or exit and attempt to fight.
The military insists on “cleansing” and destroying the tunnels, similar to what it did in Qalaat al-Shaqif, al-Qantara, and Majdal Zoun in the western sector. The military is also aware of the operational importance of these tunnels and the role they play in strengthening Hezbollah’s strength in southern Lebanon.
Over the past 20 years, Iranians have built these tunnels with a budget amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars, and their eventual destruction could ultimately facilitate the Lebanese army’s task of asserting its control over the land in southern Lebanon.
It is worth noting that the Israeli army has been attempting, over the past few weeks, to bring the battle at Tell Ali al-Tahir to a close by using drones equipped with powerful loudspeakers. After detonating and destroying strategic tunnels in the Qal’at al-Shaqif chain, it is now seeking to intensify its efforts to force out dozens of militants held inside several tunnels in the area, while the 36th Division’s forces surround them.
