The Berlin Wall... and the Tehran Wall

There is a significant similarity between the Berlin Wall and the situation in Tehran regarding the circumstances and causes that led to the Wall’s fall, which will consequently lead to the demise of the Iranian regime. The regime is unviable in the modern era, fails to align with the international community, creates problems, and establishes illegitimate proxies in Arab states.

Since the beginning of the “Iranian Revolution,” what have we gained other than the export of wars and state failures? The historical evidence over the past 47 years serves as clear proof: in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, the Gulf, and everywhere else where proxies and cells operate and terrorist activities take place. In recent days, these actors have targeted civilian facilities and vital infrastructure using drones and missiles, resulting in civilian casualties, violating regional sovereignty, carrying out blatant military attacks, and conducting espionage, intelligence gathering, and information collection within Arab countries.

The Berlin Wall was erected on August 13, 1961, by the government of East Germany, with Soviet support, to prevent its citizens from emigrating to West Germany. Stretching approximately 155 kilometers, the Wall became a symbol of the Cold War and the division between the Eastern and Western blocs, representing more of a political and ideological barrier than a mere concrete structure.

Currently, the Iranian regime imposes strict and comprehensive restrictions on citizens, encompassing political, social, and digital freedoms. These restrictions have intensified during popular protests. The authorities in Tehran rely on laws and a security crackdown to encroach upon the public sphere and criminalize opposition. Among the most prominent restrictions are limitations on digital freedoms and the internet, where authorities impose near-total blackouts on the internet and social media networks, particularly during unrest, to prevent the documentation of abuses.

The primary reason for building the Berlin Wall was to stop the brain drain from East Germany, where millions of citizens fled to the West in search of freedom and economic opportunities. The communist leadership viewed continued emigration as a threat to the regime’s survival, choosing to close borders rather than address the root causes of citizens’ departure. The Wall did not fall due to a military war, but as a result of accumulated internal and external factors, including economic deterioration, a widening gap in living standards with the West, growing popular demands for reform, and the openness policies pursued by Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, which weakened the grip of communist regimes in Eastern Europe.

This is precisely what is happening in Tehran for years. The regime will face domestic challenges it cannot meet, including economic and livelihood deterioration, while reformist demands are met with violence and killing. Citizens are facing an inflation crisis and a sharp decline in purchasing power, while state resources are directed toward supporting regional military efforts and backing proxies and militias, rather than improving infrastructure and basic services for citizens.

On November 9, 1989, East German authorities announced the easing of travel restrictions. However, the poor phrasing of the announcement led thousands of citizens to head toward border crossings. Security forces were unable to contain them, and the gates were opened without the use of force. People began tearing down the Wall with their hands, in a scene that became one of the most famous events in modern history.

The fall of the Berlin Wall led to the reunification of Germany in 1990 and marked the beginning of the collapse of most communist regimes in Eastern Europe, followed by the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. The fall of the Wall became a symbol of the triumph of freedom of movement and political reform over ideological division.

Evidence and indicators suggest that the Iranian regime will meet the same fate as the Berlin Wall or the communist regimes in Eastern Europe. The future of the regime depends on a set of factors, including the economic and living conditions, internal cohesion and domestic front, public satisfaction, and the capacity of state institutions to adapt to external changes, as well as regional and international developments. All indicators point to its imminent demise.

May God have mercy on the martyrs who gave their lives defending their homelands in the Gulf countries. We extend our highest regards and appreciation to the security forces who vigilantly defend their nation. May God protect Kuwait, its Amir, its Crown Prince, and the people of Kuwait and the Gulf from all harm.