"The Turkish Threat"... Ambitions and Moves That Do Not Give Israel a Sense of Comfort

An Israeli report by the newspaper Yisrael Hayom stated that “the decline of Tehran’s influence opens a window of opportunity for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to expand his country’s influence in the region, while simultaneously attempting to portray himself as an active mediator seeking to halt US and Israeli strikes on Iran.”

According to the report, “Erdoğan is trying to limit Israel’s integration into the Middle East and undermine regional alliances it seeks to build,” while Israeli experts warn that “Tel Aviv must prepare for a phase marked by increasing competition with the Turkish axis, reduce its reliance on the United States, and build new alliances.”

The report notes that “Erdoğan, who views Israel as a regional power, is working to prevent it from becoming a commercial hub on the corridor linking the East and the West, making significant efforts to achieve this. He is also expanding Turkey’s intervention in Middle Eastern conflict zones, providing a sanctuary for Hamas leadership, and seeking to consolidate Turkey’s presence in Syria.”

The report observed that “what is unfolding is not a traditional war as the region is accustomed to, but Erdoğan’s ambitions, rhetoric, and recent moves are raising growing concern in Israel, which simultaneously sees the decline of the Iranian axis and the rise of an old-new regional power.”

In contrast, the report added that “the Iranian regime, despite the damage it has suffered, continues to seek rebuilding the ‘ring of fire’ surrounding Israel through Hezbollah and Hamas (whose capabilities have been degraded), as well as the Houthis, who the report states have approximately 200,000 trained and equipped fighters.”

It further stated: “Israel should currently leave it to the United States to manage the confrontation with Iran, but it must be prepared to respond with overwhelming force if the Iranian regime drags it into confrontation and attacks it. Trump may attempt to form an alliance including regional countries and perhaps NATO against Iran, and might ask Israel to exercise restraint if it comes under attack, as President George H.W. Bush did when he asked Yitzhak Shamir not to respond to Iraqi Scud missiles. However, I believe that Israel today would be compelled to respond forcefully if attacked, even if this leads to a clash with Trump and a crisis in relations with the United States.”

He considers that Iran “has entered a very weak position and the regime is living through a critical phase, but the continuation of this weakness depends on the nature of upcoming US steps.” He added that “if attacks expand to encompass Iran’s entire economic infrastructure, Tehran will need decades for reconstruction, but he emphasized that it will continue to seek rebuilding the ring of fire around Israel whenever possible.”

Regarding Turkey, he said that “the hardline axis led by Turkey is on the rise. Erdoğan’s idea is to revive the Ottoman Empire across the Middle East. He possesses a massive military base in Somalia and is trying to obstruct the commercial corridor project linking India to the world via Israel, replacing it with an axis passing through Turkey, Pakistan, and Syria.”

He believes that “Turkey is also attempting to influence Israel internally, particularly in the context of elections, through influence campaigns, as well as its activity in Jerusalem by funding and building mosques to challenge Israeli presence.”

The researchers concluded that “Israel is required to reshape its security strategy in the face of challenges from Iran and Turkey, and its relationship with the United States, thereby reducing its military dependence on Washington and expanding its network of alliances.”

Sebony states, “I have long advocated reducing reliance on American aid, and it appears that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is moving in this direction. We must not put all our eggs in the American basket, and we should also begin to reduce dependence on American ammunition, while developing partnerships with countries such as South Korea, India, and Japan to bolster the military industry.”

Micha’el, for his part, believes that “Israel needs to reduce its dependence on American supply chains, increase domestic production, and establish cooperation with countries such as Serbia, Hungary, and India, so as not to remain solely dependent on the United States during crises.”

Micha’el emphasizes that, in his view, “Turkey is not moving toward direct war with Israel, but rather seeks to isolate and weaken it by intervening in various conflict arenas in the Middle East, whether in Lebanon, Syria, or the Eastern Mediterranean in confrontation with Greece and Cyprus, in addition to strengthening its ties with Egypt and Pakistan.”

He points out that discussions about forming a defensive alliance within the bloc comprising Turkey and Pakistan carry significant implications, particularly since Islamabad is a nuclear-armed state. He asserts: “This is a worrying axis, as Turkey exploits it to consolidate its regional hegemony, taking advantage of Iran’s weakness. Moreover, relations between Trump and Erdogan are very good, and it should not be forgotten that the Justice and Development Party supports the Muslim Brotherhood and allows Hamas to operate from Turkish territory and build infrastructure in the West Bank. When these elements converge with Turkey’s perception of Israel as a regional power, it translates into growing hostility toward Israel, both in rhetoric and in practice.”

He adds, “Amid all the transformations the region is undergoing, we must not forget that Israel’s top priority is completing its mission in Iran to bring about regime change.”